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. 2003 Mar;52(3):425–432. doi: 10.1136/gut.52.3.425

Table 1.

Model parameters with lower and upper limits: (a) transition probabilities, (b) treatment efficacy, (c) quality of life data, and (d) costs

(a) Transition probabilities Annual probability
Initial state State after transition Base case Lower limit Upper limit Ref
Mild chronic hepatitis C Viral negative (spontaneous remission) 0.002 0.000 0.005 54
Moderate chronic hepatitis C 0.041 0.022 0.060 55−57
Moderate chronic hepatitis C Compensated cirrhosis 0.073 0.051 0.095 55−57
Hepatocellular carcinoma 0.001 0.000 0.002 58
Compensated cirrhosis Diuretic sensitive ascites 0.025 0.018 0.032 58
Variceal haemorrhage 0.011 0.006 0.016 58
Hepatic encephalopathy 0.004 0.001 0.007 58
Hepatocellular carcinoma 0.015 0.010 0.020 58
Diuretic sensitive ascites Diuretic refractory ascites 0.067 0.040 0.094 58 59
Death from liver disease 0.110 0.077 0.143 59
Diuretic refractory ascites Death from liver disease 0.330 0.280 0.380 59
Variceal haemorrhage (first year) Death from liver disease 0.400 0.334 0.466 60
Variceal haemorrhage (subsequent years) Death from liver disease 0.130 0.085 0.175 60
Hepatic encephalopathy (first year) Death from liver disease 0.680 0.659 0.701 61
Hepatic encephalopathy (subsequent years) Death from liver disease 0.400 0.378 0.422 61
Hepatocellular carcinoma Death from liver disease 0.860 0.837 0.883 11
Liver transplantation (first year) Death from liver disease 0.210 0.193 0.227 62–64
Liver transplantation (subsequent years) Death from liver disease 0.057 0.047 0.067 62–64
Decompensated cirrhosis (ascites, variceal haemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy) Liver transplantation 0.022 0.011 0.033 17 18 65
SVR*
(b) Treatment efficacy Base case Lower limit Upper limit Ref
Antiviral treatment
    Interferon 3×3 MU/week+ribavirin 1000–1200 mg/day 47% 42% 51% 6
    Peginterferon 0.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin 1000–1200 mg/day 47% 43% 52% 6
    Peginterferon 1.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin 800 mg/day 54% 49% 58% 6
    Peginterferon 1.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin >10.6 mg/kg/day 61% 53% 68% 6
Quality of life weight Source
(c) Health related quality of life Base case Lower limit Upper limit
Health state Source
    Mild chronic hepatitis 0.95 0.90 1.00 †
    Moderate chronic hepatitis 0.92 0.89 0.95 †
    Compensated cirrhosis 0.89 0.82 0.92 †
    Decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma 0.81 0.76 0.87 †
    Hepatocellular carcinoma 0.81 0.76 0.87 †
    Liver transplantation 0.86 0.73 0.99 †
    Death 0.00 0.00 0.00 †
    Utility multiplier viral positive 0.98 0.93 1.00 †
    Utility multiplier for interferon+ribavirin 0.95 0.92 0.98 †
    Utility multiplier for peginterferon+ribavirin 0.90 0.84 0.96 †
Annual costs (€) Source
(d) Costs Base case Lower limit Upper limit Source
*SVR, sustained virological response rates—that is, proportion of viral negative patients six months after end of treatment (adjusted for histological stage and viral negative rate at 24 weeks in the analysis).
†GEHMO quality of life database.
‡GEHMO cost database.
Health state
    Mild chronic hepatitis C 127 63.5 254 ‡
    Moderate chronic hepatitis C 130 65 260 ‡
    Compensated cirrhosis 673 336.5 1346 ‡
    Diuretic sensitive ascites 1914 957 3828 ‡
    Diuretic refractory ascites 12 534 6257 25 068 ‡
    Hepatic encephalopathy (first year) 7738 3869 15 476 ‡
    Hepatic encephalopathy (subsequent years) 2793 1396.5 5586 ‡
    Variceal haemorrhage (first year) 12 314 6157 24 628 ‡
    Variceal haemorrhage (subsequent years) 3385 1692.5 6770 ‡
    Hepatocellular carcinoma 17 244 8622 34 488 ‡
    Liver transplantation (first year) 117 303 58 651.5 234 606 ‡
    Liver transplantation (subsequent years) 16 965 8482.5 33 930 ‡