FIG. 1.

Directed acyclic graph of the model estimating the mixture component parameters. All model quantities are presented as nodes. Data are denoted by rectangles, and parameters and hyperparameters are denoted by ellipses. Arrows run between nodes from their direct influence (“parents”) to the “descendants,” indicating the conditional dependence assumptions of the model: given its parent nodes, each node is independent of all other nodes in the graph except its “descendants.” A solid arrow indicates probabilistic dependences while dashed arrows indicate logical functions. Probabilistic and logical links are described in Materials and Methods. The mixture process to estimate the distribution of predicted concentrations is described in the “Distribution of predicted concentrations” section of Materials and Methods.