Table 1.
Provider estimates of risk and proportion of inaccurate estimates
| # | Clinical history | CHD 5-year risk* | Mean/Median provider estimates of 5-year risk | % of providers overestimating risk by more than 1.5x | % of providers underestimating risk (ratio less than 0.67) | % of providers who overestimate risk by >= 10 percentage points | % of providers who underestimate risk by < 10 percentage points | % of providers recommending treatment with statin drug |
| 1 | 49 yo man with TC = 240, LDL = 140, HDL = 50. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 114/74. | 3% | 6.8% / 5% | 67.1% | 11.4% | 34.2% | NA | 31.6% |
| 2 | 43 yo woman with TC = 278, LDL = 192, HDL = 48. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 136/86. | 1% | 7.2% / 5% | 89.9% | 0.0% | 34.2% | NA | 67.1% |
| 3 | 68 yo man with TC = 240, LDL = 150, HDL = 40. (+) smoker, (+) diabetes, BP = 110 / 70 | 22% | 26.0% / 25% | 32.9% | 25.3% | 84.8% | 15.2% | 97.5% |
| 4 | 42 yo man with total cholesterol = 260, LDL = 192, HDL = 30. (+) smoker (+)diabetes, BP = 110 / 70 | 10% | 18.2% / 15% | 46.8% | 12.7% | 81.0% | NA | 97.5% |
| 5 | 42 yo woman with TC = 290, LDL = 200, HDL = 45. (+) smoker; (+) diabetes, BP = 114/ 74 | 3% | 15.1% / 15% | 92.4% | 0.0% | 73.4% | NA | 96.2% |
| 6 | 73 yo man with TC = 255, LDL = 165, HDL = 42. Non-smoker; no diabetes; BP = 150/88 | 18% | 23.3% / 20% | 27.8% | 29.1% | 83.5% | 16.5% | 89.9% |
| 7 | 74 yo woman with TC = 270, LDL = 170, HDL = 40. Non-smoker; no diabetes; BP = 148/92 | 7% | 19.6% / 15% | 65.8% | 5.1% | 77.2% | NA | 84.8% |
| 8 | 40 yo man with TC = 235, LDL = 165, HDL = 40. (+) smoker; no diabetes; BP = 145/91 | 6% | 14.6% / 10.5% | 65.4% | 7.7% | 64.6% | NA | 92.4% |
| 9 | 68 yo woman with TC = 244, LDL = 155, HDL = 37. (+) smoker (+)diabetes, BP = 114 / 74 | 9% | 22.6% / 20% | 68.4% | 8.9% | 81.0% | 19.0% | 97.5% |
| 10 | 52 yo man with TC = 320, LDL = 210, HDL = 45. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 122/74 | 5% | 17.9% / 15% | 79.7% | 0.0% | 74.7% | NA | 97.5% |
| 11 | 54 yo woman with TC = 330, LDL = 235, HDL = 60. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 114/74 | 1% | 17.0% / 15% | 98.7% | 0.0% | 68.4% | NA | 93.7% |
| 12 | 56 yo woman with TC = 264, LDL = 200, HDL = 34. (+) smoker; no diabetes; BP = 155/90 | 12% | 23.5% / 20% | 53.2% | 3.8% | 91.1% | 8.9% | 98.7% |
Abbreviations: NA = not applicable, TC = serum total cholesterol, LDL = low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL = high density lipoprotein cholesterol, BP = blood pressure. Risk of myocardial infarction, sudden death, or new-onset angina as calculated from the Framingham risk equations