TABLE 1—

Populations at Risk and Mortality Estimates for the 2004 Tsunami: Aceh Province, Indonesia

	Unadjusted Mortality			Accounting for Survivor Bias
District	Surviving Displaced Population,a no.	Mortality Rate, %b	Unadjusted Population at Risk, no.	Unadjusted Mortality Estimate, no.	Household Mortality Rate, %c	Estimated Households Lost, no.	Additional Individual Mortality,d no.	Model Population at Risk, no.	Model Estimated Mortality, no.	BRR Reported Mortality, no.
Nagan Raya	11 814	10.2	13 019	1 328	2.2	49	284	13 303	1 612	1 077
Aceh Barat	47 325	16.1	54 944	8 846	5.8	553	3 210	58 154	12 056	10 874
Aceh Jaya	32 611	23.6	40 307	9 512	35.6	2 474	14 349	54 657	23 862	16 797
Aceh Besar	146 307	23.6	180 835	42 677	10.5	3 271	18 973	199 809	61 650	92 166
Banda Aceh	67 402	22.0	82 230	18 091	9.5	1 347	7 812	90 042	25 903
Pidie	42 634	6.1	45 235	2 759	NA	NA	NA	45 235	2 759	4 401
Bireuen	34 583	2.8	35 551	995	NA	NA	NA	35 551	995	461
Aceh Utara and Lhoksumawe	50 927	4.2	53 066	2 229	NA	NA	NA	53 066	2 229	2 098
Total survey area	433 603	23.7	505 251	86 174	10.1	43 783	7 549	549 033	131 066	128 063

Note. BRR = Bureau Reconstruction and Recovery; UNIMS = United Nations Information Management System; NA = Data not available, because overall mortality on the east coast was low. On the basis of anecdotal reports and the regression model, which also placed household mortality at zero, no adjustments for survivor bias were made.

^aFrom Humanitarian Information Centre or UNIMS or BRR displaced population estimates.

^bSurviving proportion of exposed population from surveys of displaced populations.

^cFrom regression equations derived from Mercy Corps village profile data.

^dCalculated by multiplying the estimated number of households lost by average pretsunami household size from displaced-population survey data.