Table 4 Hazard ratios (95% CI) for CHD and CVD events for each of four GP models.
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHD event (n = 3582 women; n = 198 events) | ||||
| Age (per 5 years) | 1.24 (1.08 to 1.42) | 1.19 (1.04 to 1.36) | 1.25 (1.09 to 1.43) | 1.20 (1.05 to 1.37) |
| SBP (per 10 mm Hg) | 1.07 (1.00 to 1.14) | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.13) | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.13) | 1.06 (0.99 to 1.13) |
| Smoking (v never smoker) | ||||
| Former smoker | 1.38 (1.00 to 1.90) | 1.32 (0.96 to 1.82) | 1.35 (0.98 to 1.86) | 1.30 (0.94 to 1.80) |
| Current 0–9 cigs/day | 2.43 (1.42 to 4.14) | 2.26 (1.31 to 3.88) | 2.46 (1.44 to 4.20) | 2.32 (1.35 to 3.99) |
| Current ⩾10 cigs/day | 3.06 (2.00 to 4.68) | 2.56 (1.66 to 3.95) | 3.01 (1.97 to 4.60) | 2.60 (1.69 to 4.00) |
| Body mass index (per kg/m2) | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.02) | ||
| Waist (per 10 cm) | 1.14 (1.02 to 1.28) | 1.08 (0.96 to 1.21) | ||
| Self‐rated health (v excellent) | ||||
| Good | 1.60 (0.82 to 3.11) | 1.55 (0.79 to 3.03) | ||
| Fair | 2.69 (1.36 to 5.31) | 2.51 (1.27 to 4.99) | ||
| Poor | 7.40 (3.22 to 17.01) | 6.79 (2.95 to 15.64) | ||
| GP model AUROC | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) | 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) | 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) |
| P value for difference from Framingham model AUROC | 0.09 | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| Sensitivity/specificity | ||||
| 30% CHD risk threshold | 4%/99% | 11%/98% | 5%/99% | 6%/99% |
| 15% CHD risk threshold | 26%/86% | 34%/86% | 27%/86% | 34%/85% |
| CVD event (n = 3511 women; n = 240 events) | ||||
| Age (per 5 years) | 1.29 (1.14 to 1.46) | 1.24 (1.09 to 1.40) | 1.30 (1.14 to 1.47) | 1.25 (1.10 to 1.41) |
| SBP (per 10 mm Hg) | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.12) | 1.05 (0.99 to 1.11) | 1.05 (0.99 to 1.11) | 1.05 (0.99 to 1.11) |
| Smoking (v never smoker) | ||||
| Former smoker | 1.27 (0.95 to 1.71) | 1.23 (0.91 to 1.65) | 1.25 (0.93 to 1.67) | 1.21 (0.90 to 1.62) |
| Current 0–9 cigs/day | 2.63 (1.65 to 4.21) | 2.47 (1.53 to 3.97) | 2.65 (1.65 to 4.23) | 2.52 (1.56 to 4.05) |
| Current ⩾10 cigs/day | 3.33 (2.28 to 4.87) | 2.86 (1.95 to 4.21) | 3.28 (2.25 to 4.79) | 2.90 (1.97 to 4.25) |
| Body mass index (per kg/m2) | 1.01 (0.99 to 1.04) | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.02) | ||
| Waist (per 10 cm) | 1.15 (1.04 to 1.28) | 1.09 (0.98 to 1.21) | ||
| Self‐rated health (v excellent) | ||||
| Good | 1.81 (0.96 to 3.41) | 1.76 (0.94 to 3.32) | ||
| Fair | 2.97 (1.56 to 5.66) | 2.78 (1.45 to 5.33) | ||
| Poor | 9.33 (4.27 to 20.41) | 8.66 (3.93 to 19.09) | ||
| GP model AUROC | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.71) | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.68) | 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) |
| P value for difference from Framingham model AUROC | 0.10 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Sensitivity/specificity | ||||
| 30% CVD risk threshold | 10%/97% | 18%/96% | 11%/97% | 11%/97% |
| 15% CVD risk threshold | 43%/74% | 48%/76% | 47%/73% | 48%/74% |
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (95% CI) for Framingham models fitted to BWHHS (British Women's Heart and Health Study) data: coronary heart disease (CHD), 0.65 (0.61 to 0.69); cardiovascular disease (CVD), 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69).
cigs, cigarettes; GP, general practice; SBP, systolic blood pressure.