Table 4 Example of the output from the model: 10‐year risk of a CHD event and a CVD event by ethnic group for a man with systolic blood pressure 130 mm Hg, cholesterol 5.5 mmol/l and HDL cholesterol 1.3 mmol/l at ages 40, 50 and 60 and for non‐smoker and smoker.
| Non‐smoker | Smoker | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 50 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |
| 10‐year risk of CHD event (%) | ||||||
| Indian | 5.0 (3.5–6.5) | 9.8 (6.8–12.6) | 18.5 (13.1–23.5) | 7.9 (5.5–10.2) | 15.2 (10.7–19.3) | 27.9 (20.2–34.9) |
| Pakistani | 5.9 (3.6–8.1) | 11.3 (7.1–15.5) | 21.3 (13.6–28.5) | 9.2 (5.7–12.6) | 17.5 (11.1–23.6) | 31.8 (20.9–41.5) |
| Bangladeshi | 5.8 (3.3–8.4) | 11.3 (6.5–16.0) | 21.2 (12.5–29.4) | 9.2 (5.2–13.1) | 17.4 (10.1–24.3) | 31.7 (19.2–42.7) |
| All South Asian | 5.3 (4.1–6.4) | 10.3 (8.1–12.4) | 19.5 (15.4–23.2) | 8.4 (6.5–10.1) | 16.0 (12.6–19.1) | 29.3 (23.5–34.5) |
| Chinese | 1.6 (0.4–2.7) | 3.1 (0.9–5.4) | 6.1 (1.7–10.4) | 2.5 (0.7–4.3) | 4.9 (1.4–8.4) | 9.6 (2.7–16.1) |
| Caribbean | 1.4 (0.5–2.2) | 2.8 (0.9–4.4) | 5.4 (1.8–8.6) | 2.2 (0.7–3.6) | 4.4 (1.5–7.0) | 8.5 (2.9–13.4) |
| Black African | 2.3 (1.9–2.8) | 4.6 (3.7–5.5.) | 8.9 (7.3–10.7) | 3.7 (3.0–4.5) | 7.2 (5.9–8.7) | 13.9 (11.5–16.6) |
| Irish | 3.6 (2.3–4.9) | 7.1 (4.6–9.5) | 13.7 (8.9–18.0) | 5.7 (3.7–7.7) | 11.1 (7.2–14.7) | 20.9 (13.9–27.2) |
| Framingham score | 3.6 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 18.2 |
| 10‐year risk of CVD event (%) | ||||||
| Indian | 5.6 (4.0–7.2) | 11.4 (8.3–14.5) | 22.4 (16.5–28.0) | 9.9 (7.1–12.6) | 19.6 (14.4–24.7) | 36.7 (27.8–44.8) |
| Pakistani | 6.2 (4.1–8.4) | 12.6 (8.4–16.9) | 24.7 (16.8–32.1) | 11.0 (7.3–14.7) | 21.6 (14.6–28.3) | 40.0 (28.2–50.2) |
| Bangladeshi | 6.3 (3.7–9.0) | 12.8 (7.6–17.9) | 24.9 (15.3–33.9) | 11.1 (6.6–15.6) | 21.9 (13.3–30.0) | 40.4 (25.8–52.6) |
| All South Asian | 5.9 (4.7–7.2) | 12.1 (9.7–14.4) | 23.6 (19.2–27.8) | 10.5 (8.4–12.5) | 20.7 (16.8–24.5) | 38.5 (32.0–44.5) |
| Chinese | 2.6 (0.8–4.5) | 5.4 (1.7–9.1) | 11.1 (3.6–18.1) | 4.7 (1.5–7.9) | 9.6 (3.1–15.8) | 19.1 (6.4–30.3) |
| Caribbean | 3.2 (1.6–4.8) | 6.6 (3.2–9.9) | 13.3 (6.7–19.6) | 5.7 (2.8–8.6) | 11.6 (5.8–17.1) | 22.7 (11.7–32.6) |
| Black African | 5.0 (3.9–6.5) | 10.1 (8.0–13.1) | 20.1 (16.1–25.5) | 8.8 (6.9–11.4) | 17.6 (14.0–22.4) | 33.3 (27.1–41.2) |
| Irish | 3.9 (2.7–5.1) | 8.0 (5.6–10.4) | 16.0 (11.3–20.6) | 6.9 (4.8–9.0) | 13.9 (9.8–18.0) | 27.0 (19.4–34.0) |
| Framingham score | 4.1 | 8.4 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 22.3 |
Range in brackets estimated by substituting 95% limits of the confidence interval of the prevalence ratio.
CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high density lipoprotein.