Table 5 Example of the output from the model: 10‐year risk of a CHD event and a CVD event by ethnic group for a woman with systolic blood pressure 130 mm Hg, cholesterol 5.5 mmol/l and HDL cholesterol 1.3 mmol/l at ages 40, 50 and 60 and for non‐smoker and smoker.
| Non‐smoker | Smoker | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 50 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |
| 10‐year risk of CHD event (%) | ||||||
| Indian | 1.6 (0.6–2.5) | 3.2 (1.2–4.9) | 6.4 (2.3–9.6) | 2.6 (0.9–4.0) | 5.1 (1.8–7.8) | 10.0 (3.6–14.9) |
| Pakistani | 2.6 (1.2–4.1) | 5.1 (2.3–8.0) | 9.8 (4.5–15.3) | 4.1 (1.8–6.4) | 8.0 (3.6–12.4) | 15.3 (7.1–23.3) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.4 (0.5–2.3) | 2.7 (0.9–4.6) | 5.3 (1.9–8.9) | 2.2 (0.8–3.7) | 4.3 (1.5–7.2) | 8.3 (3.0–13.8) |
| All South Asian | 1.8 (1.2–3.8) | 3.6 (2.4–7.4) | 7.1 (4.8–14.1) | 2.9 (1.9–5.9) | 5.7 (3.8–11.5) | 11.1 (7.5–21.6) |
| Chinese | 0.3 (0.0–0.7) | 0.6 (0.0–1.3) | 1.1 (0.0–2.7) | 0.5 (0.0–1.1) | 0.9 (0.0–2.1) | 1.8 (0.0–4.2) |
| Caribbean | 2.2 (1.2–3.4) | 4.4 (2.4–6.6) | 8.6 (4.8–12.7) | 3.6 (2.0–5.3) | 7.0 (3.9–10.3) | 13.4 (7.6–19.5) |
| Black African | 0.9 (0.6–1.4) | 1.8 (1.1–2.8) | 3.6 (2.2–5.5) | 1.5 (0.9–2.3) | 2.9 (1.8–4.5) | 5.7 (3.6–8.7) |
| Irish | 1.7 (1.0–2.6) | 3.4 (1.9–5.1) | 6.8 (3.8–10.0) | 2.8 (1.5–4.2) | 5.5 (3.0–8.1) | 10.6 (5.9–15.5) |
| Framingham score | 1.7 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 11.7 |
| 10‐year risk of CVD event (%) | ||||||
| Indian | 2.0 (1.1–3.1) | 4.2 (2.2–6.4) | 8.7 (4.6–13.0) | 3.7 (1.9–5.5) | 7.5 (4.0–11.3) | 15.1 (8.2–22.2) |
| Pakistani | 3.2 (1.7–4.7) | 6.6 (3.5–9.7) | 13.4 (7.2–19.2) | 5.7 (3.0–8.4) | 11.6 (6.3–16.8) | 22.8 (12.7–32.0) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.7 (0.7–2.8) | 3.6 (1.4–5.7) | 7.4 (3.0–11.7) | 3.1 (1.2– 5.0) | 6.4 (2.6–10.1) | 13.0 (5.4–20.0) |
| All South Asian | 2.3 (1.5–3.1) | 4.8 (3.1–6.4) | 9.7 (6.5–12.9) | 4.1 (2.7–5.5) | 8.4 (5.6–11.2) | 16.9 (11.3–22.1) |
| Chinese | 0.6 (0.0–1.3) | 1.2 (0.0–2.8) | 2.5 (0.0–5.7) | 1.0 (0.0–2.4) | 2.1 (0.0–4.9) | 4.4 (0.0–10.0) |
| Caribbean | 2.3 (1.3–3.4) | 4.8 (2.6–6.9) | 9.7 (5.4–13.9) | 4.1 (2.3–6.0) | 8.4 (4.7–12.1) | 16.9 (9.5–23.7) |
| Black African | 2.6 (1.7–3.9) | 5.3 (3.5–8.0) | 10.8 (7.1–15.9) | 4.6 (3.0–6.9) | 9.4 (6.2–13.9) | 18.7 (12.5–26.9) |
| Irish | 2.2 (1.3–3.0) | 4.5 (2.8–6.1) | 9.1 (5.7–12.5) | 3.8 (2.4–5.3) | 7.9 (4.9–10.8) | 15.8 (10.0–21.3) |
| Framingham score | 2.1 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 9.7 | 14.7 |
Range in brackets estimated by substituting 95% limits of the confidence interval of the prevalence ratio.
CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high density lipoprotein.