Table 2 Performance of the two risk scores by fifths of the Scottish Index of Deprivation, designating the top 20% for each score as “high risk” in each sex, and combining them (SHHEC population age 30–74).

Fifths of Scottish Index of Deprivation	1	2	3	4	5	All
Number of people	2372	1985	2210	2533	4197	13 297
Number of events in 10 years	113	140	185	239	488	1165
Observed event rate % in 10 years	4.8	7.1	8.4	9.4	11.6	8.8
Framingham cardiovascular score
Expected rate % from applying score	10.1	11.9	12.3	13.4	14.6	12.8
Observed/expected ratio*	0.47	0.59	0.68	0.70	0.80	0.69
% of SIMD group in top 20% of risk score	11.4	16.6	17.3	21.6	26.9	20.0
Events anticipated in top 20% of risk score	35	59	68	116	253	531
Sensitivity for anticipating events, %	31.0	42.1	36.8	48.5	51.8	45.6
Specificity for absence of events, %	89.6	85.4	84.4	81.2	76.4	82.5
Positive predictive value, %	13.0	17.9	17.8	21.2	22.4	20.0
Negative predictive value, %	96.3	95.1	93.6	93.8	92.3	94.0
Likelihood ratio = sensitivity/(1−specificity)	3.0	2.9	2.4	2.6	2.2	2.6
Success rate (% correctly categorised)	86.8	82.3	80.5	78.1	73.5	79.2
Event rate for anticipated events, %	1.5	3.0	3.1	4.6	6.0	4.0
Event rate for unanticipated events, %†	3.3	4.1	5.3	4.9	5.6	4.8
ASSIGN cardiovascular score
Expected rate % from applying score	8.1	9.4	10.2	12.0	15.8	11.8
Observed/expected ratio*	0.59	0.75	0.82	0.79	0.74	0.74
% of SIMD group in top 20% of risk score	7.8	11.9	14.3	20.1	33.7	20.0
Events anticipated in top 20% of risk score	30	43	59	109	298	539
Sensitivity, %	26.5	30.7	31.9	45.6	61.1	46.3
Specificity, %	93.2	89.5	87.4	82.5	69.9	82.5
Positive predictive value, %	16.3	18.2	18.7	21.4	21.1	20.3
Negative predictive value, %	96.2	94.5	93.4	93.6	93.2	94.1
Likelihood ratio = sensitivity/(1−specificity)	3.9	2.9	2.5	2.6	2.0	2.6
Success rate (% correctly categorised)	90.0	85.4	82.7	79.0	68.9	79.3
Event rate for anticipated events, %	1.3	2.2	2.7	4.3	7.1	4.1
Event rate for unanticipated events, %†	3.5	4.9	5.7	5.1	4.5	4.7

*Observed/expected ratios by SIMD fifths. Testing for trend: p = 0.002 for Framingham, p = 0.35 (NS) for ASSIGN.¹⁴

†Unanticipated event rates by SIMD fifths. Testing for trend: p<0.001 for Framingham, p = 0.17 (NS) for ASSIGN.¹⁴