Table 1.
Best-fit parameter values for different models of changing otter demography fit to age distributions of sea otters found dead before or after EVOS
| Model family | Relative log-likelihood | Maximum likelihood (95% confidence limits)
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter a (constant) | Parameter b (year effect) | Parameter d (age effect) | Parameter e (interaction) | ||
| Fit to prespill carcasses: | |||||
| Logistic | 374.55 | −47.7348 (−86.4115, 4.1017) | −0.1501 (−2.7285, 0.3162) | 0.02285 (0.00545, 17.5616) | 0.00097 (−0.00090, 5.7620) |
| Modified logistic | 371.52 | 2.38747 (0.82337, 3.58883) | 0.10258 (−0.01390, 0.24090) | −0.31686 (−0.44277, −0.17741) | 0.00874 (−0.00367, 0.01995) |
| Linear | 369.88 | 0.00509 (0.00509, 0.38982) | −0.00034 (−0.00034, 0.0000) | 0.00018 (0.00018, 0.01785) | −0.00001 (−0.00001, 0) |
| Fit to postspill carcasses: | |||||
| Logistic | 503.72 | −0.8379 (−2.1982, 0.7026) | 0.5133 (0.2035, 0.8375) | 0.1798 (0.0812, 0.3179) | −0.0576 (−0.0922, −0.0269) |
| Modified logistic | 507.55 | −1.1747 (−2.2327, 0.2638) | 0.5225 (0.3141, 0.7037) | 0.06915 (−0.0570, 0.1842) | −0.0706 (−0.0980, −0.0436) |
| Linear | 503.12 | 0.2536 (−0.0033, 0.3332) | 0.1062 (0.0612, 0.1150) | 0.03455 (0.0179, 0.0495) | −0.0107 (−0.0135, −0.0064) |
Relative negative log-likelihood values, maximum likelihood parameter estimates, and one-dimensional 95% confidence limits are given for the best-fit model for each model family. All six best-fit models assumed an initial stable age distribution. See text for definitions of parameter effects.