TABLE 3.
Population dynamics of coronaviruses
| Group | Best-fitting population model | Mean substitution rate | Substitution rate HPD intervals | Mean growth rate | Growth rate HPD intervals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aa | Exponential | 6.08 × 10−3 | 1.3 × 10−5, 1.4 × 10−2 | 0.27 | 0.015, 0.45 |
| 1B | Constant | 1.4 × 10−2 | 2.3 × 10−6, 4.0 × 10−2 | ||
| 1B (bats) | Constant | 3.7 × 10−2 | 5.5 × 10−5, 0.1 | ||
| 2 | Exponential | 1.8 × 10−2 | 3.7 × 10−3, 3.0 × 10−2 | 0.24 | 0.13, 0.31 |
| 3 | Exponential | 5.35 × 10−3 | 2.5 × 10−3, 1.1 × 10−2 | 0.311 | 0.17, 0.46 |
| 4Ab | Constant | 2.0 × 10−2 | 8.8 × 10−3, 3.4 × 10−2 | ||
| 4B | Exponential | 1.7 × 10−2 | 0.1 × 10−4, 2.5 × 10−2 | 10.754 | 8.02, 13.40 |
| 5 | Constant | 8.4 × 10−2 | 2.1 × 10−2, 0.14 |
a
Group 1A includes the sublineage that contains TGEV, feline CoV, and wild animal coronaviruses from group 1, while group 1B includes all other group 1 coronaviruses; BtCoVs in group 1B were also analyzed separately (see Fig. 2).
b
Group 4 is subdivided, based on phylogenetic relationships of the HEL gene, into group 4A, which contains only BtCoVs, and group 4B, which includes civet and human SARS-CoVs and BtCoV/Rp3 (see Fig. 2).