Table 4.
Probability Structure of Cognitive-habit Learning (Weather Prediction) Task
| Cue pattern
|
Cue
|
P (cue combination)
|
P (outcome)
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|||
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .133 | .150 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .087 | .385 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .080 | .083 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .087 | .615 |
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .067 | .200 |
| 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .040 | .500 |
| 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .047 | .143 |
| 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .133 | .850 |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .067 | .500 |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .067 | .800 |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .033 | .400 |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .080 | .917 |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .033 | .600 |
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .047 | .857 |
For any given trial, 1 of the 14 possible cue pattern combinations displayed above appeared on the computer screen with a probability indicated as: P (cue combination). As shown above, the probability of the cue combinations to predict sunshine (outcome 1) was set at P (outcome). Conversely, the probability of the above cue combinations to predict rain (or outcome 2) was equal to 1 − P.