Table 4.

Variance components for three-level multilevel mental health models

Model	Level 1: Individual		Level 2: Ward		Level 3: Unitary authority
	Variance (SE)	2.5th- 97.5th credible estimates	Variance (SE)	2.5th- 97.5th credible estimates	Variance (SE)	2.5th- 97.5th credible estimates
Null model	352.1 (3.21)	345.9, 358.5	4.59 (0.86)	3.05, 6.31	6.24 (2.33)	3.09, 12.08
% of total random variance	97.0	95.4, 98.0	1.27	0.84, 1.74	1.72	0.86, 3.27
Model A (Null + individual variablesa)	335.7 (3.05)	329.8, 341.8	1.72 (0.61)	0.60, 2.98	5.22 (1.96)	2.58, 10.27
% of total random variance	98.0	96.6, 98.8	0.50	0.17, 0.87	1.52	0.76, 2.95
Model B (model A + contextual variables)
Townsend score	324.8 (2.95)	319.1, 330.7	0.52 (0.31)	0.14, 1.33	3.14 (1.20)	1.51, 6.12
% of total random variance	98.9	98.1, 99.5	0.02	0.00, 0.17	0.94	0.45, 1.84
Income support	324.8 (2.94)	319.1, 330.7	0.27 (0.25)	0.04, 0.98	2.69 (1.04)	1.27, 5.29
% of total random variance	99.2	98.4, 99.6	0.01	0.00, 0.12	0.80	0.38, 1.60
IBJSA	324.8 (2.95)	319.1, 330.7	0.58 (0.34)	0.17, 1.42	4.57 (1.69)	2.28, 8.78
% of total random variance	98.6	97.3, 99.3	0.02	0.00, 0.20	1.37	0.69, 2.61
IB/SDA	324.6 (2.94)	318.9, 330.5	0.27 (0.25)	0.04, 0.97	1.45 (0.61)	0.61, 2.92
% of total random variance	99.6	99.1, 99.8	0.01	0.00, 0.12	0.44	0.00, 0.91
DLA/AA	324.7 (2.94)	319.0, 330.6	0.34 (0.27)	0.07, 1.07	1.26 (0.55)	0.51, 2.61
% of total random variance	99.6	99.2, 99.8	0.04	0.00, 0.20	0.38	0.15, 0.80

a The individual-level variables were age, age squared, gender, social class, marital status, carer status, employment status, and housing tenure.

IS: Income Support

IBJSA: Income-based Job Seekers Allowance

IB/SDA: Incapacity Benefit, Severe Disablement Allowance

DLA/AA: Disability Living Allowance and Attendance Allowance