Table 2.
Per annum labor force and Medicare cost effects of improvement in health in the U.S. elderly population
| Year | DDR, % | MCI, % | Labor force increment to 2004 labor force (5,000,000) due to |
Tax revenues (20%) increases generated by assuming specific labor force participation rates, $ billions; in parentheses, elderly percentage of U.S. labor force |
Reductions in Medicare costs due to improvements in nondisabled persons' health (increased prevalence & reduced per capita costs), $ billions | Average projected funds for appropriation, $ billions assuming one of three labor force participation rates |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR | MCI, millions | Total | 30% | 50% | 100% | 30% | 50% | 100% | ||||
| 2014 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 30.0 (3.8) | 50.1 (4.2) | 100.2 (5.4) | 137.7 | 167.7 | 187.8 | 237.9 |
| 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 44.2 (4.1) | 73.7 (4.8) | 147.4 (6.4) | 152.6 | 196.8 | 226.3 | 300.0 | |
| 2034 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 13.7 | 19.0 | 281.3 (5.4) | 468.8 (7.3) | 937.6 (12.1) | 810.2 | 1,091.5 | 1,279.0 | 1,747.8 |
| 2.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 18.1 | 25.1 | 371.5 (6.6) | 619.2 (8.9) | 1,238.4 (15.2) | 1,442.9 | 1,814.4 | 2,062.1 | 2,681.3 | |
DDR, disability decline rate; MCI, Health Service Index reduction health improvement.