Table 3.
Mean values for model parameters (%), after N = 100 replications
| Main calibration | Mortality sensitivity analysis* | Strong tertiary prevention† | |
| Incidence at age 15 (♂) | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Incidence at age 15 (♀) | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| Total lifetime prevalence | 25.1% | 23.3% | 25.1% |
| Lifetime prevalence (♂) | 18.5% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| Lifetime prevalence (♀) | 31.5% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| Point prevalence | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Episodes lasting < 3 weeks | 15.8% | 15.8% | 15.7% |
| Episodes lasting ≥ 2 years (%) | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| Proportion MDD with single episode | 16.9% | 19.5% | 16.9% |
| Lifetime morbidity proportion** | 34.0% | 34.2% | 34.0% |
| Proportion relapse within 1 year | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% |
* Relative risk for mortality assumed to be 1.8 rather than 1.1 in main calibration. See Appendix II for a more comprehensive set of simulations.
** the model records the number of dying entities who have had an episode during their time in the population at risk.
† Relative risk for recurrence = 1. Risk of recurrence after multiple episodes equal to that after single episodes. N = 100 model replications. See Appendix II for a more comprehensive set of simulations.