Skip to main content
. 2007 Mar 17;8(2):123–135. doi: 10.1007/s10198-007-0039-4

Table 1.

Mean (SE) probabilities to move between disease states in the base-case scenario. (These probabilities were also used in scenario 3. In scenario 2 the subsequent cycle probabilities for year 1 were applied to years 2 to 5. The cycle length was 8 days for the very first cycle and 1 month for of all subsequent cycles)

To ⇒
From ⇓
 		 Tiotropium Salmeterol Ipratropium
Moderate Severe Very severe Death Moderate Severe Very severe Death Moderate Severe Very severe Death
First cycle probabilities
 Moderate 0.906 (0.018) 0.092 (0.018) 0.001 (0.002) 0.001 (0.001) 0.898 (0.033) 0.100 (0.033) 0.001 (0.003) 0.001 (0.001) 0.738 (0.092) 0.257 (0.091) 0.004 (0.013) 0.001 (0.002)
 Severe 0.259 (0.017) 0.715 (0.018) 0.025 (0.006) 0.001 (0.001) 0.201 (0.028) 0.765 (0.030) 0.033 (0.013) 0.001 (0.002) 0.102 (0.028) 0.841 (0.034) 0.056 (0.022) 0.001 (0.002)
 Very severe 0.010 (0.005) 0.340 (0.024) 0.648 (0.024) 0.002 (0.002) 0.001 (0.003) 0.301 (0.042) 0.696 (0.042) 0.002 (0.004) 0.005 (0.011) 0.220 (0.066) 0.773 (0.067) 0.002 (0.007)
Subsequent cycle probabilities, year 1
 Moderate 0.957 (0.010) 0.040 (0.010) 0.003 (0.003) 0.001 (0.001) 0.929 (0.025) 0.066 (0.024) 0.005 (0.007) 0.001 (0.002) 0.924 (0.050) 0.073 (0.049) 0.003 (0.010) 0.001 (0.004)
 Severe 0.023 (0.006) 0.952 (0.009) 0.023 (0.006) 0.002 (0.002) 0.023 (0.011) 0.916 (0.020) 0.059 (0.017) 0.002 (0.003) 0.013 (0.011) 0.948 (0.021) 0.037 (0.018) 0.002 (0.004)
 Very severe 0.001 (0.002) 0.045 (0.012) 0.947 (0.013) 0.008 (0.005) 0.006 (0.008) 0.036 (0.019) 0.951 (0.023) 0.008 (0.009) 0.003 (0.009) 0.025 (0.026) 0.964 (0.031) 0.008 (0.015)
Subsequent cycle probabilities, years 2 to 5
 Moderate 0.984 (0.007) 0.015 (0.007) 0.000 (0.000) 0.001 (0.001) 0.981 (0.017) 0.019 (0.017) 0.000 (0.000) 0.001 (0.003) 0.978 (0.033) 0.022 (0.033) 0.000 (0.000) 0.001 (0.005)
 Severe 0.000 (0.000) 0.990 (0.004) 0.008 (0.003) 0.002 (0.002) 0.000 (0.000) 0.987 (0.008) 0.011 (0.007) 0.002 (0.003) 0.000 (0.000) 0.986 (0.012) 0.011 (0.011) 0.002 (0.005)
 Very severe 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.992 (0.005) 0.008 (0.005) 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.992 (0.007) 0.008 (0.007) 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.992 (0.011) 0.008 (0.011)