Table 2.

Mean (SE) exacerbation probabilities in the base-case scenario. (These probabilities were also used in scenario 2. In scenario 3 the probabilities of ipratropium were also applied to tiotropium and salmeterol during years 2 to 5)

	Probability of experiencing an exacerbation			Probability that the exacerbation will be severe, given that there is an exacerbation
	Tiotropium	Salmeterol	Ipratropium	Tiotropium	Salmeterol	Ipratropium
Moderate	0.051 (0.004)	0.057 (0.013)	0.080 (0.020)	0.097 (0.024)	0.030 (0.031)	0.267 (0.114)
Severe	0.075 (0.003)	0.089 (0.011)	0.097 (0.013)	0.136 (0.018)	0.138 (0.033)	0.188 (0.041)
Very severe	0.096 (0.005)	0.104 (0.016)	0.102 (0.022)	0.192 (0.027)	0.207 (0.048)	0.186 (0.062)