Table 1.

Steady state summary results from simulations comparing routine vaccination of 12-year-olds to no routine vaccination, under base case assumptions and for sensitivity analyses on coverage rates, low vaccine efficacy (doubling waning of vaccine effectiveness) and halving herd immunity

	No Vaccination	Base case (71% coverage)	90% coverage	50% coverage	Low Vaccine efficacy	Low Herd Immunity
Total Cases	2,806.7	1,716.9	1,500.6	1,969.2	2,121.6	2,056.2
Secondary Cases	45.5	15.5	14.1	18.0	19.0	20.4
Serogroup A	8.7	2.3	1.76	2.4	4.4	3.31
Serogroup B	839.6	843.4	836.9	837.4	823.5	843.2
Serogroup C	748.5	281.7	194.8	387.1	461.1	437.1
Serogroup Y	773.7	305.9	212.5	420.3	492.9	445.4
Serogroup W-135	247.9	90.5	62.5	129.3	152.6	137.5
Other Serogroups	188.3	193.11	192.1	192.7	187.2	189.6
Fatal Cases	375.0	186.4	147.7	233.8	268.1	250.1
Cases with Disability	471.4	281.6	243.39	325.9	355.4	340.8
Life Years Lost	14,151.1	7,616.0	6,352.7	9,143.0	10,112.8	9,640.9
QALYs Lost	16,852.1	9,626.2	8,234.8	11,287.5	12,281.4	11,834.9
Total Outbreaks	9.1	2.4	2.2	2.8	2.8	2.9
Outbreak Cases	91.2	24.9	23.7	26.4	27.3	27.0
Community Outbreaks	2.9	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8
Serogroup B	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Serogroup C	5.8	0.2	<0.1	0.57	0.57	0.64
Serogroup Y	1.1	<0.1	0.0	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
Other Serogroups	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Number Vaccinated	119,171	2,866,522	3,634,838	2,020,350	2,867,463	2,867,233
During Outbreak	119,171	137	37	594	1,078	848
Cases Averted due to Routine Vaccination		-1,090	-1,306	-837	-685	-743
Death Averted due to Routine Vaccination		-189	-227	-141	-107	-123
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Case		2,521	2,692	2,271	4,012	3,699
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Death		14,536	15,488	13,484	25,685	22,342