Table 1.

Clinical probabilities

Clinical probabilities	Base case (range)	Reference
Dyspepsia composite
nsNSAIDs	12.0% (9.9%–14.0%)	[32]
Celecoxib	7.8% (6.0%–9.5%)	[32]
POB 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs	15.5% (4.1%–24.8%)	[16,24-29]
Celecoxib	2.1% (0.0%–6.1%)	[16,24-29]
Symptomatic peptic ulcer 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs	22.4% (10.0%–33.7%)	[16,24-29]
Celecoxib	17.3% (10.0%–24.0%)	[16,24-29]
PUB 21-year cumulative incidence
nsNSAIDs	34.6% (19.0%–47.3%)	[16,24-29]
Celecoxib	19.0% (10.0%–27.2%)	[16,24-29]
Age-related increase in PUB risk per year	4.3% (2.5%–6.1%)	[18,25,27,28,71,72]
PUB risk multiplier for prior PUB event	2.7 (1.5–4.7)	[18,25,28,30,31]
Hospitalization rate for POBs	90% (80%–100%)	[145-150]
Mortality rate as percent of POBs	8.0% (5.0%–14.0%)	[151-159]
POB with prior dyspepsia	35% (20%–50%)	[42,44,45]
Ratio active ulcers and symptoms to lifetime-prevalent peptic ulcers	50% (0%–65%)	See text
Ratio chronic to lifetime-prevalent nonulcer dyspepsia	55% (0%–75%)	[12,33,52,55,56]

nsNSAID, non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; PUB, symptomatic peptic ulcers, perforations, obstructions, bleeding ulcers; POB, perforation, obstruction, bleeding ulcer; PPI, proton pump inhibitor.