Table 4.

 Ratio of predicted to observed risks of cardiovascular disease event at 10 years across tenths of estimated risks

Tenth*	QRISK				Framingham				ASSIGN
	Predicted risk (%)	Observed risk (%)	Ratio		Predicted risk (%)	Observed risk (%)	Ratio		Predicted risk (%)	Observed risk (%)	Ratio
Women:
First	0.71	0.44	1.61		0.59	0.53	1.12		1.31	0.34	3.81
Second	1.06	0.95	1.12		1.17	0.96	1.22		1.83	0.91	2.00
Third	1.49	1.45	1.03		1.95	1.59	1.22		2.41	1.49	1.61
Fourth	2.11	2.11	1		3.02	2.19	1.38		3.18	2.14	1.48
Fifth	2.97	3.06	0.97		4.41	3.02	1.46		4.23	3.08	1.37
Sixth	4.22	4.5	0.94		6.15	4.63	1.33		5.76	4.17	1.38
Seventh	6.06	6.16	0.99		8.21	6.97	1.18		8.05	6.60	1.22
Eighth	8.9	9.65	0.92		10.76	10.29	1.05		11.61	9.79	1.19
Ninth	13.36	13.95	0.96		14.15	14.63	0.97		17.28	13.86	1.25
Tenth	22.52	20.19	1.12		22.47	16.86	1.33		29.29	19.35	1.51
Overall	6.34	6.25	1.02		7.28	6.16	1.18		8.49	6.17	1.38
Men:
First	1.64	0.93	1.77		2.86	1.03	2.79		3.37	0.92	3.65
Second	2.24	1.6	1.39		4.19	1.73	2.43		4.36	1.63	2.68
Third	2.92	2.6	1.12		5.54	2.53	2.19		5.31	2.56	2.07
Fourth	3.81	3.86	0.99		7.04	3.71	1.90		6.43	3.39	1.90
Fifth	5	4.86	1.03		8.86	5.43	1.63		7.83	5.22	1.50
Sixth	6.61	6.67	0.99		11.13	7.38	1.51		9.65	7.16	1.35
Seventh	8.88	9.88	0.9		14.00	10.11	1.38		12.16	10.19	1.19
Eighth	12.24	14.24	0.86		17.78	13.90	1.28		15.76	13.97	1.13
Ninth	17.4	18.46	0.94		23.19	19.05	1.22		21.30	18.79	1.13
Tenth	27.86	25.72	1.08		35.24	23.42	1.51		33.34	24.49	1.36
Overall	8.86	8.88	1.00		12.96	8.81	1.47		11.95	8.83	1.35
All patients	7.59	7.56	1.004		10.10	7.48	1.35		10.21	7.49	1.36

Comparison between QRISK, Framingham, and ASSIGN in validation cohort in patients aged 35-74.

*First tenth is lowest tenth of risk.