TABLE 4—

Predicted and Actual Prevalence of Overweight in 1999–2002, by Gender and Age: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

	Predicted Prevalence,a %
	NHANES I (1971–1975)	NHANES II (1976–1980)	NHANES III (1988–1994)	Actual Prevalence, %	Predicted Prevalence if No One Smoked, %
Total	34.9	35.0	35.1	35.2	35.6
Men
Age, y
25–39	39.4	39.6	39.8	40.0	41.2
40–59	43.1	43.3	43.8	44.1	45.5
60–74	41.5	41.6	41.9	42.0	42.6
Women
Age, y
25–39	28.5	28.6	28.1	27.9	26.4
40–59	26.8	26.9	27.0	27.0	27.3
60–74	32.7	32.6	32.7	32.8	33.2

Note. Data taken from only those participants of the NHANES 1999–2002 with complete data on weight, height, and smoking status. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared (kg/m²). Following federal guidelines,16 overweight was defined as a BMI of 25 kg/m² to less than 30 kg/m².

^aShown is the predicted prevalence of obesity in the NHANES 1999–2002 if smoking prevalence were the same as in past surveys.