Table 3.
Risk of vaccinia necrosum (V.N.) (progressive vaccinia) and death from primary smallpox vaccinations, Stratified by age and study, 1963–1968
| Age group and studies | Number vaccinated | V.N. No. | Deaths No. | Risk of complication per million (95% C.I.)a | Risk of death per million (95% C.I.)a | Case fatality risk per hundred (95% C.I.)a | |||
| Age <1 | |||||||||
| Neff 1967a | 654,000 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | (0.04, 8.5) | 0.0 | (0.0, 5.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5) |
| Neff 1967b | 31,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 122) | 0.0 | (0.0, 119.0) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1969 | 614,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 6.0) | 0.0 | (0.0, 6.0) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1970 | 17,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 217) | 0.0 | (0.0, 217) | n/a | n/a |
| Ratner 1970 | 1 | 0 | 0 | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/a | n/a |
| Neff 1972 | 32 | 0 | 0 | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/a | n/a |
| Summary | 1,316,033 | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | (0.02, 4.2) | 0.0 | (0.0, 2.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5) |
| Age 1 to 4 | |||||||||
| Neff 1967a | 2,973,000 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | (0.01, 1.9) | 0.0 | (0.0, 1.2) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5) |
| Neff 1967b | 142,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 26.0) | 0.0 | (0.0, 26.0) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1969 | 2,733,000 | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | (0.01, 2.0) | 0.0 | (0.0, 1.3) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5) |
| Lane 1970 | 317,000 | 1 | 0 | 3.2 | (0.08, 17.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 11.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5) |
| Ratner 1970 | 68,002 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 54.2) | 0.0 | (0.0, 54.2) | n/a | n/a |
| Neff 1972 | 517 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 7110) | 0.0 | (0.0, 7110) | n/a | n/a |
| Summary | 6,233,519 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | (0.1, 1.4) | 0.0 | (0.0, 0.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 70.8) |
| Age 5 to 19 | |||||||||
| Neff 1967a | 2,295,000 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | (0.3, 3.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 1.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 70.6) |
| Neff 1967b | 110,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0.0, 33.5) | 0.0 | (0.0, 33.5) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1969 | 1,959,000 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | (0.1, 3.7) | 1.0 | (0.1, 3.7) | 100 | (15.8, 100) |
| Lane 1970 | 229,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0.0, 16.1) | 0.0 | (0.0, 16.1) | n/a | n/a |
| Ratner 1970b | 193,721 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0.0, 19.0) | 0.0 | (0.0, 19.0) | n/a | n/a |
| Summary | 4,786,721 | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | (0.34, 2.44) | 0.4 | (0.05, 1.5) | 40.0 | (5.3, 85.3) |
| Age 20 + | |||||||||
| Neff 1967a | 317,000 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 | (0.8, 22.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 11.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 84.2) |
| Neff 1967b | 15,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 246) | 0.0 | (0.0, 246) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1969 | 288,000 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 | (0.8, 25.1) | 0.0 | (0.0, 12.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 84.2) |
| Lane 1970 | 33,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 112) | 0.0 | (0.0, 112) | n/a | n/a |
| Ratner 1970b | 107,822 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 34.2) | 0.0 | (0.0, 34.2) | n/a | n/a |
| Summary | 760,822 | 4 | 0 | 5.3 | (1.4, 13.5) | 0.0 | (0.0, 4.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 60.2) |
| All agesc | |||||||||
| Neff 1967a | 6,239,000 | 7 | 0 | 1.1 | (0.4, 2.3) | 0.0 | (0.0, 0.6) | 0.0 | (0.0, 41.1) |
| Neff 1967b | 298,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 12.4) | 0.0 | (0.0, 12.4) | n/a | n/a |
| Lane 1969 | 5,594,000 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | (0.3, 2.1) | 0.4 | (0.04, 1.3) | 40.0 | (5.3, 85.3) |
| Lane 1970 | 596,000 | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | (0.04, 9.3) | 0.0 | (0.0, 6.2) | 0.0 | (0.0, 97.5 |
| Mellin 1970 | 109,000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 33.8) | 0.0 | (0.0, 33.8) | n/a | n/a |
| Ratner 1970 | 369,546 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 10.0) | 0.0 | (0.0, 10.0) | n/a | n/a |
| Neff 1972 | 549 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | (0.0, 6697) | 0.0 | (0.0, 6697) | n/a | n/a |
| Summary | 13,206,095 | 13 | 2 | 1.0 | (0.5, 1.7) | 0.2 | (0.02, 0.5) | 15.4 | (1.9, 45.4) |
n/c = not calculated, n/a = not assessable aRisk and confidence intervals not calculated (n/c) for less that 100 vaccinations. Exact confidence intervals based on the binomial distribution. bThe Ratner study age groups, "Age 5 to 14" and "Age 15+", were counted in the Table age groups "Age 5 to 19" and "Age 20+", respectively. cAll ages group includes subjects whose age was unknown