Table 3.
For each component of the best model (with response variable taken as the proportion of all target sites changing to infested), the sum of relative likelihoods (Akaike weights, wi) of all models with the respective component is shown. The third column gives the proportion of all models that have the respective component
| Component of best model | Akaike weight (wi) |
Proportion of models with respective component |
|---|---|---|
| No distinctions between target ecotypes | 1 | 1/2 |
| Explanatory variable calculated by summing number of bugs on source sites at t | 0·99 | 1/2 |
| Distinction between seasons | 0·99 | 1/2 |
| Source sites = only sites infested at t and t − 1 | 0·97 | 1/3 |
| One explanatory variable per ecotype | 0·84 | 4/7 |
| No distinction between village locations | 0·73 | 1/2 |
| Source sites = sites infested at t and t + 1, multiplied by the proportion of time infested during t and t + 1 |
0·45 | 1/3 |