TABLE 4.

Results of isolation model simulations

Data set	Replicate no.	Effective population size (theta)		Divergence time (t)		Migration rate (m)
				HiPt	HPD90%	HiPt	HPD90%	HiPt	HPD90%
A	1	1.835	1.235–2.925	0.955	0.195–8.795	9.863	2.888–45.038
	2	1.875	1.205–2.885	0.835	0.265–9.995a	10.613	3.038–48.188
	3	1.785	1.225–2.935	0.765	0.155–9.085	9.338	2.663–47.963
Parameters converted into demographical units (individuals for theta or years for t)
	1	161,450	108,660–257,352	168,049	34,314–1,547,629	2Nm =	9.05
	2	164,969	106,020–253,833	146,933	46,632–1,758,790a		9.95
	3	157,051	107,780–258,232	134,615	27,275–1,598,659		8.33
B	1	2.495	1.705–3.745	0.455	0.205–9.965	7.750	2.250–56.450
	2	2.585	1.705–3.895	0.545	0.025–8.945	7.750	1.750–47.250
	3	2.535	1.655–3.845	0.495	0.025–9.355	7.650	2.050–38.050
Parameters converted into demographical units (individuals for theta or years for t)
	1	198,107	135,380–274,859	72,256	32,555–1,582,472	2Nm =	9.67
	2	205,253	135,380–309,269	86,548	3,970–1,420,493		10.02
	3	201,283	131,410–305,299	78,607	3,970–1,485,602		9.70

Model parameters estimates (theta, t, m) for data set A and B. Parameters were converted into demographic units using the following formulas: theta (individuals) = theta/(4 × μ); T(years) = t/μ. The migration parameter 2Nm was calculated by multiplying (0.5 × theta) and m. HiPt, bin with the maximum residence time; HPD90%, 90% highest posterior density interval.

^aDue to the long-tailed posterior distribution, the HPD90% upper bound was higher than the upper bound of the prior distribution and could not be estimated.