Table 3.

Multinomial Logit Model Results for HHA Supply Change Outcomes 1996–1999 (n =9,061)

	Contract Service Area/Stable Service Area			Expand Service Area/Stable Service Area			Market Exit/Stable Service Area
Variables*	OR†	t	p Value	OR	t	p Value	OR	t	p Value
Ownership status and setting
Proprietary hospital-based	1.12	0.57	.571	0.31	−4.31	<.001	1.13	0.83	.407
Nonproprietary hospital-based	0.36	−5.83	<.001	0.43	−4.92	<.001	0.30	−9.51	<.001
Government hospital-based	0.30	−4.95	<.001	0.22	−6.29	<.001	0.11	−10.28	<.001
Government freestanding	1.29	1.32	.186	0.21	−5.13	<.001	0.56	−3.44	.001
Proprietary freestanding	1.33	2.10	.036	0.99	−0.08	.934	0.89	−1.12	.263
Organizational structure
Branches and subunits	1.18	6.99	<.001	0.97	−0.52	.601	1.11	4.62	<.001
Medicare program tenure
Medicare program tenure	0.97	−4.00	<.001	1.00	0.07	.946	0.98	−3.50	<.001
Recent market entrant	0.74	−2.72	.007	3.24	9.63	<.001	1.13	1.42	.155
Medicare service delivery attributes
Beneficiaries served (100s)	0.97	−3.05	.002	0.87	−6.81	<.001	0.94	−6.02	<.001
Visits per beneficiary served—agency limit (10s)	1.05	4.50	<.001	0.91	−7.51	<.001	1.05	5.88	<.001
Medicare HHC demand attributes
Medicare market demand size (10,000s)	0.99	−1.18	.237	1.01	1.06	.288	0.98	−2.56	.010
Medicare market demand density (100s/mi2)	1.09	1.84	.066	1.11	2.75	.006	0.98	−0.29	.772
Medicare HHC market structure attributes
Active medicare HHAs (10s)	1.03	2.80	.005	1.01	0.49	.625	1.02	2.80	.005
Market share of beneficiaries served (%)	0.92	−8.62	<.001	0.96	−3.79	<.001	0.95	−8.05	<.001
Other LTC supply indicators
Nursing home bed supply (per 100 capita)	0.98	−1.14	.252	1.00	−0.15	.883	1.03	2.07	.039
Chronic disease and LTC hospitals	0.77	−1.98	.048	1.23	1.32	.188	1.24	2.14	.032
Log likelihood=−8,562.73
Pseudo-R2=0.1687

Notes:

^*State-level fixed effect dummy variables were also specified as additional control variables.

^†OR, odds ratio for (supply change outcome/stable market area).

LTC, long-term care; HHA, home health agencies.