Table 2.

Ratios of Mean Actual to Mean Expected Costs

	Arkansas		Florida		New Jersey
	Allowance Recipients	Control Group PCS Recipients	Allowance Recipients	Control Group Waiver Recipients	Allowance Recipients	Control Group PCS Recipients
Nonelderly
Month 12	0.95	0.82	1.16	0.97	1.02	0.96
Month 24	0.92	0.82	1.27	1.19	1.13	1.06
Elderly
Month 12	1.01	0.82	1.06	1.17	1.04	1.02
Month 24	1.04	0.79	1.16	1.32	1.13	1.07
Children
Month 12	NA	NA	1.26	0.89	NA	NA
Month 24	NA	NA	1.36	1.10	NA	NA
Maximum N
Nonelderly	194	119	254	390	241	254
Elderly	410	365	147	334	259	322
Children	NA	NA	352	411	NA	NA

For allowance recipients, actual costs include costs for the allowance, fiscal agent, and counseling services. For control group recipients, actual costs include personal care costs (in Arkansas and New Jersey) or waiver costs (in Florida). For allowance recipients and control group recipients, expected costs are equal to the discounted value of the baseline care plan in Arkansas and Florida and the full value of the care plan in New Jersey (where allowances were not discounted), plus expected costs for fiscal agent and counseling services. For adults, year 2 results pertain to those who enrolled earlier than May 1, 2000 in Arkansas; October 1, 2001 in Florida; and January 1, 2002 in New Jersey.

PCS, personal care services.

Source: Medicaid claims data and care plan data.