Figure 3.

Bayesian forecasting estimates of the trait and initial state parameters for subject “A”. This figure illustrates the optimization process for the estimates of trait parameters ν, η, and λ and initial state parameters ξ and ϕ during the simulation shown in Figure 2. The panels display the parameter estimates (diamonds) with 95% confidence intervals (vertical bars), as updated upon the availability of new performance measurements at 2 h intervals (beginning with the third measurement at 4 h of wakefulness). Note that even though circadian phase angle ϕ was estimated in the range from 0 to 24, it is plotted here (last panel) on a scale from −12 to 12 to facilitate visual interpretation. The confidence intervals for the first two estimates of ϕ extend below the bottom of the panel, and are continued at the top of the panel because of the circular nature of this parameter. For reference purposes, the open diamonds mark the parameter estimates that were underlying the performance predictions for subject “A” as shown successively in the 6 panels in the left column of Figure 2.