Table 3.
Standardised regression coefficients of multi-linear regression model obtained from inputs and outputs of model uncertainty analysis.
| Standardised regression coefficient | Outputs of the mathematical model (dependent variables) | |||
| Model input parameters (independent variables) | CSW HIV averted (%) | CSW HIV Prevalence (%) Difference | Client HIV averted (%) | Client HIV Prevalence (%) Difference |
| Overall number of CSW at any point in time | -0.002 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.041 |
| Proportion of CSW recently reached by intervention | 0.566† | 0.219† | 0.520† | 0.174† |
| Proportion of CSW reached using STD services per month | 0.005 | -0.004 | 0.003 | 0.020 |
| Average proportion of STDs treated effectively cured | 0.015 | -0.020 | 0.004 | -0.015 |
| Proportion of unreached CSW reporting using condoms | ||||
| None of the time | 0.415 | 0.215 | 0.259 | 0.092 |
| Some of the time | 0.245 | 0.096 | 0.107 | 0.036 |
| All of the time | 0.109 | 0.037 | -0.029 | -0.046 |
| Proportion of reached CSW reporting using condoms | ||||
| None of the time | -0.280 | 0.233 | -0.184 | 0.230 |
| Some of the time | -0.258 | 0.655 | -0.032 | 0.618 |
| All of the time | -0.084 | 0.832 | 0.149 | 0.724 |
| Initial HIV prevalence of CSWs | -0.272† | 0.097 | -0.220† | 0.078 |
| Average duration of STDs (months) | ||||
| CSWs | -0.049 | -0.365† | -0.139* | -0.227** |
| Clients | -0.344† | -0.547† | -0.426† | -0.367† |
| Average duration of initial high infectivity phase (months) | 0.129† | 0.157† | 0.154† | 0.092* |
| Average time span (months) | ||||
| CSWs sell sex | -0.034 | -0.003 | -0.073** | -0.013 |
| Clients buy sex | -0.068* | 0.115** | 0.036 | 0.122** |
| Average no. of clients per month per CSW | ||||
| Unreached | 0.211** | 0.182 | 0.138* | 0.112 |
| Reached | -0.242† | -0.153 | -0.145* | -0.091 |
| Average number of CSW seen by one client per month | 0.012 | 0.442† | 0.084 | 0.773† |
| Proportion of time condom used, corresponding to | ||||
| "None of the time" | -0.143† | -0.181† | -0.142† | -0.175† |
| "Some of the time" | -0.029 | -0.069 | 0.024 | -0.045 |
| "All of the time" | 0.392† | 0.179† | 0.275† | 0.142** |
| HIV Transmission probability per sex act | ||||
| Male to Female | 0.353† | 0.692† | 0.482† | 0.211** |
| Female to Male | 0.197† | 0.661† | 0.302† | 0.696† |
| STD Transmission probability per sex act | ||||
| Male to Female | -0.129** | -0.271† | -0.180† | -0.136* |
| Female to Male | -0.172† | -0.220† | -0.200† | -0.125* |
| STD cofactor effect per sex act | 0.604† | 1.119† | 0.727† | 0.790† |
| Multiplicative cofactor during high infectivity phase | 0.107† | 0.168† | 0.132† | 0.133** |
| Proportion of time condom used that provides protection | 0.283† | 0.140** | 0.226† | 0.124* |
* ≤ 0.05 ** ≤ 0.01 † < 0.001 CSWs: Commercial sex workers STD: sexually transmitted disease