Table 2 Summary of other variables associated with the base‐case model.
| Variables | Base‐case value | Low CrI | High CrI | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probabilities of further revascularisations | |||||
| Primary angioplasty | |||||
| Repeated angioplasty | 0.054 | – | – | Beta (α = 19, β = 319) | Systematic review11,17 |
| CABG | 0.054 | – | – | Beta (α = 18, β = 290) | Systematic review11,17 |
| Thrombolysis | |||||
| Angioplasty (rescue and routine) | 0.281 | – | – | Beta (α = 27, β = 69) | Systematic review11,17 |
| CABG | 0.071 | – | – | Beta (α = 18, β = 222) | Systematic review11,17 |
| Transition probabilities*† | |||||
| From IHD state to non‐fatal event (year 1) | 0.059 | 0.041 | 0.077 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| From IHD to non‐fatal event (⩾2 years) | 0.027 | 0.019 | 0.036 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| From IHD to CV death (year 1) | 0.038 | 0.024 | 0.055 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| From IHD to CV death (⩾2 years) | 0.032 | 0.023 | 0.041 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| From non‐fatal event to CV death (year 1) | 0.260 | 0.180 | 0.352 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| From non‐fatal event to CV death (⩾2 years) | 0.048 | 0.021 | 0.084 | Log normal | NHAR23 |
| Recurrent non‐fatal event in the MI state | 0.087 | 0.049 | 0.134 | Posterior distribution | NHAR23 |
| Recurrent non‐fatal event in the stroke state | 0.038 | 0.017 | 0.182 | Posterior distribution | NHAR23 |
| Recurrent stroke | 0.498 | 0.095 | 0.906 | Posterior distribution | NHAR23 |
| Hospital length of stay after acute MI (days) | 10 | – | – | Fixed | HES18 |
| Unit costs (£) treatment initial acute MI episode‡ | |||||
| Cardiac ward | 173 | – | – | Fixed | 20 |
| Angiography (procedure) | 727 | – | – | Fixed | 21 |
| Primary angioplasty (procedure) | 1614 | – | – | Fixed | 21 |
| Guidewire | 71 | – | – | Fixed | 21 |
| Bare metal stent | 370 | – | – | Fixed | 22 |
| Guiding catheter | 42 | – | – | Fixed | 21 |
| Balloon | 231 | – | – | Fixed | 21 |
| Abciximab | 1042 | – | – | Fixed | 22 |
| Streptokinase | 89.72 | – | – | Fixed | 22 |
| Alteplase | 600 | – | – | Fixed | 22 |
| Unit costs (£) events after initial episode‡ | |||||
| Acute MI (episode) | 1055 | – | – | Fixed | 20 |
| Primary angioplasty (procedure) | 2984 | – | – | Fixed | 20 |
| CABG (procedure) | 6450 | – | – | Fixed | 29 |
| Long‐term costs associated with health states*§ | |||||
| IHD state | 431 | 99 | 1209 | Posterior distribution | Technical report17 |
| MI state (year 1) | 1964 | 1368 | 3150 | Posterior distribution | Technical report17 |
| After MI state (⩾2 years) | 91 | 375 | 1188 | Posterior distribution | Technical report17 |
| Stroke state (year 1) | 8786 | 8244 | 9395 | Posterior distribution | Technical report17 |
| After stroke (⩾2 years) | 2318 | 1826 | 2933 | Posterior distribution | Technical report17 |
| Utilities associated with health states | |||||
| MI state (year 1) | 0.683 | – | – | Beta (α = 624, β = 289) | Measured 6 months after hospital discharge25 |
| After MI state (⩾2 years) | 0.718 | – | – | Beta (α = 564, β = 222) | Measured 12 months after hospital discharge25 |
| Non‐disabled stroke | 0.740 | – | – | Beta (α = 219, β = 78) | 26 |
| Disabled stroke | 0.380 | – | – | Beta (α = 43, β = 70) | 26 |
| Combined stroke | 0.612 | – | – | – | 26 |
CABG, coronary artery bypass grafting; CrI, credible interval; CV, cardiovascular; IHD, ischaemic heart disease; MI, myocardial infarction.
*Mean and 95% CrI reported.
†Hazard rates obtained from survival analysis, converted to probabilities.
‡Price year 2003–4; all costs updated using HCHS27 price index 2004.
§All annual costs adjusted by average number of days spent in each state based on NHAR dataset.