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. 2007 Oct 22;1(1):e33. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000033

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Chaves, Pascual.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.

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(A) 95% Confidence intervals for the parameters of the best model. AR stands for the autoregressive component of the model (φ₁); ARseas for the seasonal autoregressive component of the model (φ₁₂); VAR for the variance of the residuals (σ_ε²); MEI and T4 for the parameter for MEI at lag 13 (α) and Temperature at lag 4 (γ), respectively. Black signs are 95% confidence intervals using values from the sub-sample when the model is selected as best, and blue including all the bootstrap samples. The structure of the best model can be seen in Protocol S1. (B) Predictive R ² and the 95% confidence intervals, indicated by stars, for the bootstrapped best model and prediction interval.