Table 1.
Models of change in life expectancy
| Model 1: Linear homoskedastic | Model 2: Quadratic heteroskedastic | Model 3: Two regimes, each linear homoskedastic |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-mortality regime | Low-mortality regime | |||
| Constant | 20.46 (7.79) | −20.55 (1.04) | 57.19 (5.93) | 48.80 (17.92) |
| Life expectancy 1963 | −0.173 (3.71) | 1.411 (2.03) | −1.218 (5.18) | −0.606 (13.3) |
| Life expectancy 1963 squared | −0.014 (2.45) | |||
| Standard error of the residuals | 7.60 | 7.03 | 3.97 | |
| Residual error: Intercept | 3.91 (12.5) | |||
| Residual error: Effect of initial life expectancy | −0.037 (6.45) | |||
| Probability of low-mortality regime: Intercept | −9.235 (3.91) | |||
| Probability of low-mortality regime: Initial life expectancy | 0.203 (4.04) | |||
| Log likelihood | −660.7 | −631.9 | −601.6 | |
| N | 192 | 192 | 192 | |
Dependent variable: change in life expectancy 1963–2003. t statistics are in parentheses.