Table 2.
Models of change in life expectancy: AIDS mortality removed
| Model 1: Linear homoskedastic | Model 2: Quadratic heteroskedastic | Model 3: Two regimes, each linear homoskedastic |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-mortality regime | Low-mortality regime | |||
| Constant | 30.71 (17.6) | −12.00 (1.28) | 16.62 (1.76) | 47.42 (19.3) |
| Life expectancy 1963 | −0.319 (10.3) | 1.336 (3.89) | −0.022 (0.09) | −0.582 (14.1) |
| Life expectancy 1963 squared | −0.015 (4.99) | |||
| Standard error of the residuals | 5.03 | 5.55 | 3.89 | |
| Residual error: Intercept | 2.40 (7.82) | |||
| Residual error: Effect of initial life expectancy | 0.017 (3.03) | |||
| Probability of low-mortality regime: Intercept | 184.2 (0.34) | |||
| Probability of low-mortality regime: Initial life expectancy | −4.06 (0.34) | |||
| Log likelihood | −581.8 | −558.7 | −552.9 | |
| N | 192 | 192 | 192 | |
Dependent variable: change in life expectancy, AIDS mortality removed 1963–2003. t statistics are in parentheses.