Table 1 Predictors of progression in 11 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who had progressed and 41 patients who had not progressed to dementia, and predictors of improvement in 7 patients with MCI who had improved and 45 patients who had not improved in the follow‐up evaluation.
| Progressed to dementia | Not progressed to dementia | OR (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n = 11 | n = 41 | Bivariate | Multivariate | |
| Sociodemographics | ||||
| Age | 70 (4) | 70 (7) | 1.0 (0.9 to 1.1) | – |
| Sex (females) | 7 (64%) | 22 (54%) | 0.7 (0.2 to 2.6) | – |
| Education | 8 (5) | 7 (4) | 1.1 (0.9 to 1.2) | – |
| Mental features | – | |||
| Duration of cognitive symptoms | 33 (21) | 33 (39) | 1.0 (0.9 to 1.0) | – |
| Mini‐Mental State Examination | 27.1 (1.7) | 27.2 (1.7) | 1.0 (0.6 to 1.4) | – |
| CDR sum of boxes | 1.41 (0.77) | 0.93 (0.70) | 2.5 (0.9 to 6.2) | – |
| Depressive symptoms (CES‐D) | 18.9 (8.5) | 15.6 (7.6) | 1.1 (0.9 to 1.1) | – |
| MCI group* | ||||
| Oth | 1 (6%) | 16 (94%) | Ref | Ref |
| Mem | 1 (13%) | 7 (87%) | 2.3 (0.1 to 42.0) | 1.0 (0.1 to 21.5) |
| Mem+ | 9 (33%) | 18 (67%) | 7.6 (1.0 to 70.2) | 4.6 (0.5 to 45.2) |
| Imaging features | ||||
| Subcortical vascular disease† | 6 (55%) | 12 (29%) | 2.9 (0.7 to 11.4) | – |
| Medial temporal atrophy‡ | 8 (73%) | 10 (24%) | 8.3 (1.8 to 37.3) | 7.1 (1.4 to 35.0) |
| Normal MRI scan§ | 0 (0%) | 14 (34%) | ≈0¶ | – |
| Improved | Not improved | OR (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n = 7 | n = 45 | Bivariate | Multivariate | |
| Sociodemographics | ||||
| Age | 67 (6) | 70 (6) | 0.9 (0.8 to 1.1) | – |
| Sex (females) | 6 (86%) | 23 (51%) | 0.2 (0.1 to 1.6) | – |
| Education | 5.1 (1.5) | 7.7 (4.1) | 0.7 (0.4 to 1.1) | – |
| Mental features | – | |||
| Duration of cognitive symptoms | 22 (15) | 34 (37) | 1.0 (0.9 to 1.0) | – |
| Mini‐Mental State Examination | 28.1 (1.1) | 27.0 (1.7) | 1.8 (0.9 to 3.8) | – |
| CDR sum of boxes | 0.43 (0.45) | 1.12 (0.73) | 0.1 (0.4 to 16.2) | – |
| Depressive symptoms (CES‐D) | 12.4 (4.1) | 16.9 (8.1) | 0.9 (0.8 to 1.1) | – |
| MCI group** | ||||
| Oth | 6 (65%) | 16 (35%) | 18.5 (2.0 to 171.3) | 15.9 (1.1 to 60.5) |
| Mem | 0 (0%) | 8 (100%) | Ref | Ref |
| Mem+ | 1 (4%) | 26 (96%) | ||
| Imaging features | ||||
| Subcortical vascular disease† | 0 (0%) | 18 (40%) | ≈0§§ | – |
| Medial temporal atrophy‡ | 0 (0%) | 18 (40%) | ≈0§§ | – |
| Normal MRI scan§ | 5 (71%) | 9 (20%) | 10.0 (1.7 to 60.2) | 8.3 (1.6 to 162.2) |
ARWMC, Age‐related White Matter Changes; CES‐D, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale ; CDR, Clinical Dementia Rating; MCI, mild cognitive impairment; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; MTA, medial temporal atrophy.
Patients were followed for 14.6 (5.5) and 15.6 (2.6) months (progressed and non‐progressed MCI, p = 0.35), and for 15.6 (2.3) and 15.4 (3.5) months (improved and non‐improved MCI, p = 0.83).
*Progression: in the logistic models, the three MCI groups were analysed as dummy variables. The independent variables in the multivariate model were MCI group and MTA. The presence of memory disturbance only (MCI Mem or MCI Mem+) did not predict progression in the univariate logistic regression model (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1 to 7.4).
†Age‐Related White Matter Changes (ARWMC) Scale total score ⩾6 or beginning of confluence of lesions (score 2) in at least one region.
‡% Scheltens' Scale score of 3 or 4.
§ARWMC Scale total score ⩽5; only focal lesions of score 0 or 1 in all regions, and Scheltens' Scale score of 0 or 1 on both sides. OR resulted from univariate (left column) and multivariate (right column, only for the variables significantly predicting progression or improvement in univariate models) logistic regression analyses, with progression to dementia (first part of the table) or improvement (second part of the table) as dependent variable.
¶The ORs and the 95% CIs could not be computed owing to zero numerator.
**Improvement: the two MCI groups showing memory disturbance (MCI Mem and MCI Mem+) were collapsed and analysed as a single group. The independent variables in the multivariate model were the MCI group (with or without memory disturbance) and normal MRI scan.