Table 2.
Hierarchical models of hazard of substance dependence symptom onset across ages 11–22 (N=2,956), including demographic predictors (Model 1), adversities (Models 2 – 4) and prior mood and conduct problems (Model 5).
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic characteristics1 | |||||
| Tribe (NP) | 1.68 (1.39–2.04) | 1.68 (1.39–2.03) | 1.65 (1.36–2.00) | 1.65 (1.36–2.00) | 1.64 (1.31–2.06) |
| Gender (male) | 2.29 (1.89–2.78) | 2.34 (1.93–2.84) | 2.51 (2.05–3.07) | 2.52 (2.06–3.07) | 2.59 (1.97–3.39) |
| Gender by Tribe (NP male) | .74 (.58–.95) | .73 (.56–.95) | .72 (.56–.92) | .72 (.56–.92) | .76 (.57–1.01) |
| Prior Adversities2 | |||||
| Proximal3 | 2.23 (1.95–2.55) | 1.79 (1.55–2.06) | 2.44 (1.91–3.11) | 2.46 (1.90–3.18) | |
| Cumulative Distal4 | 1.23 (1.18–1.29) | 1.27 (1.22–1.32) | 1.28 (1.19–1.39) | ||
| Proximal by Cumulative Distal | .90 (.83–.97) | .89 (.82–.96) | |||
| Prior Mood Disorder2 | 3.86 (2.05–7.24) | ||||
| Childhood Conduct Problems1 | 1.26 (1.08–1.47) | ||||
| Sample-size adjusted BIC | 7,007 | 6,933 | 6,843 | 6,842 | 6,802 |
Gender, tribe, and conduct problems were time-invariant covariates
Adversities and previous mood symptoms were time-varying covariates
Proximal adversity was coded 1 in each age period if 1 or more adversities occurred 1 year before the age period and prior to the onset of first substance dependence symptoms and coded 0 if no adversities were reported within this period.
Distal adversities at each age period were the total number of adversities first occurring more than 1 year prior to the age period and prior to the onset of first substance dependence symptoms; counts of more than 5 were truncated at 5.