TABLE 3—

Results of Linear Regression Analyses for Assaults Against Women: Diadema, Brazil, July 2000–July 2005

	No Time Trend	Linear Time Trend
Intercept, r (t)	−3.402** (−2.985)	484.459** (2.882)
Linear time trend, years (t)		−0.244** (−2.903)
Unemployment rate, % (t)	0.075 (1.181)	0.057 (1.060)
New closing time law, r (t)	−0.822*** (−4.737)	−0.189 (−0.709)
ρ (t)	0.416*** (3.544)	0.304* (2.476)
R2	0.487	0.581
Simulation impact of new law
Assaults prevented in 3 years, no.	1050.6	175.8
Assaults prevented, %	56.1	17.2
95% Lower bound on assaults prevented	680.0	−238.6
95% Upper bound on assaults prevented	1421.2	590.2

Note. Linear regression analyses related log-transformed crime rates per 1000 population to untransformed exogenous measures using monthly data from July 2000 to July 2005 (N = 61 months). Models included generalized least squares correction for first-order autocorrelated residuals (Prais—Winsten algorithm). The new closing time law was coded as a dummy variable.

* P < .05; **P < .01; ***P < .001 (2-tailed tests).