Table 4.

Probit regressions: Impact of unemployment shock on work and school transitions, age 10–16, Brazil PME 1982–1999

Variable	Enter labor force by month 4	Leave school by month 4	Fail to advance to next grade in school
Head’s transitions (continuously employed omitted)
Unemployment shock in month 2–4	0.091 (0.050)^**	0.179 (0.075)^**	0.086 (0.033)^***
Unemployment shock in month 5–13	0.016 (0.064)	0.074 (0.108)	0.017 (0.039)
Left labor force	0.016 (0.040)	−0.103 (0.066)	0.047 (0.026)^*
Child’s age (age 16 omitted)
Child age 10	−1.294 (0.041)^***	−0.438 (0.066)^***	−0.165 (0.022)^***
Child age 11	−1.169 (0.037)^***	−0.434 (0.066)^***	−0.115 (0.022)^***
Child age 12	−0.938 (0.034)^***	−0.296 (0.061)^***	−0.075 (0.021)^***
Child age 13	−0.739 (0.033)^***	−0.296 (0.062)^***	−0.023 (0.021)
Child age 14	−0.447 (0.030)^***	−0.165 (0.058)^***	−0.003 (0.022)
Child age 15	−0.210 (0.030)^***	−0.124 (0.057)^**	0.014 (0.023)
Male child	0.395 (0.019)^***	−0.019 (0.034)	0.167 (0.010)^***
Child 2+ years behind in school	0.100 (0.021)^***	0.520 (0.040)^***	0.194 (0.014)^***
Father’s age	−0.010 (0.010)	−0.046 (0.018)^***	−0.014 (0.007)^**
Mother’s age	0.029 (0.012)^**	0.017 (0.022)	−0.017 (0.007)^**
Father’s age squared/100	0.011 (0.011)	0.050 (0.018)^***	0.015 (0.007)^**
Mother’s age squared/100	−0.042 (0.014)^***	−0.027 (0.026)	0.017 (0.009)^**
Father’s schooling	−0.027 (0.008)^***	−0.022 (0.015)	−0.015 (0.005)^***
Mother’s schooling	−0.036 (0.008)^***	−0.036 (0.017)^**	−0.029 (0.005)^***
Father’s schooling squared/100	−0.064 (0.054)	−0.002 (0.112)	−0.026 (0.032)
Mother’s schooling squared/100	0.002 (0.063)	0.142 (0.133)	0.096 (0.035)^***
Metro Area (São Paulo omitted)
Salvador	−0.037 (0.029)	−0.120 (0.057)^**	0.426 (0.017)^***
Belo Horizonte	0.082 (0.024)^***	0.161 (0.048)^***	0.148 (0.015)^***
Recife	−0.030 (0.028)	0.007 (0.052)	0.299 (0.017)^***
Rio de Janeiro	−0.338 (0.028)^***	−0.023 (0.053)	0.276 (0.016)^***
Porto Alegre	−0.150 (0.027)^***	0.154 (0.051)^***	0.277 (0.017)^***
Year (1982 omitted)
Year 1984	−0.058 (0.034)^*	−0.055 (0.061)	−0.124 (0.023)^***
Year 1986	0.044 (0.034)	−0.028 (0.061)	−0.005 (0.022)
Year 1988	−0.086 (0.039)^**	−0.028 (0.068)	−0.062 (0.025)^**
Year 1990	−0.062 (0.037)^*	−0.086 (0.065)	0.039 (0.023)^*
Year 1992	−0.274 (0.040)^***	−0.055 (0.071)	−0.068 (0.024)^***
Year 1994	−0.251 (0.038)^***	−0.290 (0.070)^***	−0.117 (0.024)^***
Year 1996	−0.230 (0.038)^***	−0.379 (0.076)^***	−0.235 (0.024)^***
Year 1998	−0.304 (0.041)^***	−0.187 (0.076)^**	−0.268 (0.026)^***
Month of first observation (February omitted)
March	−0.055 (0.036)	0.011 (0.067)	0.008 (0.022)
April	−0.060 (0.036)^*	−0.122 (0.070)^*	0.013 (0.022)
May	−0.024 (0.035)	−0.127 (0.069)^*	−0.052 (0.022)^**
June	−0.005 (0.035)	−0.073 (0.067)	−0.048 (0.022)^**
July	0.005 (0.034)	−0.011 (0.065)	−0.057 (0.022)^***
August	0.011 (0.035)	−0.035 (0.065)	−0.05 (0.021)^**
Constant	−0.967 (0.266)^***	−1.203 (0.506)^**	0.255 (0.164)
Number of Observations	106,648	106,648	106,648

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; Significance levels:

=.10,

^**

=.05,

^***

=.01 Sample is conditional on child in school and not working in month 1 and male head working in month 1.