Table 5.
Probit regressions with interactions: Impact of unemployment shock on work and school transitions, age 10–16, Brazil PME 1982–1999
| Variable | Enter labor force by month 4 | Leave school by month 4 | Fail to advance to next grade in school |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head’s transitions (continuously employed omitted) | |||
| Unemployment shock in month 2–4 | 0.354 (0.137)** | 0.358 (0.179)** | 0.225 (0.097)** |
| Unemployment shock * 1990s | −0.168 (0.105) | 0.291 (0.151)* | −0.084 (0.067) |
| Unemployment shock * age 10–14 | −0.203 (0.106)* | −0.230 (0.159) | −0.072 (0.081) |
| Unemployment shock * father’s schooling | −0.011 (0.017) | −0.051 (0.028)* | 0.003 (0.010) |
| Unemployment shock * male child | −0.003 (0.098) | −0.014 (0.155) | −0.089 (0.055) |
| Child’s age (age 16 omitted) | |||
| Child age 10 | −1.283 (0.042)*** | −0.420 (0.067)*** | −0.155 (0.023)*** |
| Child age 11 | −1.154 (0.039)*** | −0.400 (0.068)*** | −0.102 (0.023)*** |
| Child age 12 | −0.921 (0.036)*** | −0.279 (0.064)*** | −0.065 (0.022)*** |
| Child age 13 | −0.722 (0.034)*** | −0.281 (0.065)*** | −0.018 (0.022) |
| Child age 14 | −0.436 (0.031)*** | −0.149 (0.060)** | 0.003 (0.023) |
| Child age 15 | −0.201 (0.031)*** | −0.115 (0.059)* | 0.020 (0.023) |
| Male child | 0.391 (0.020)*** | −0.012 (0.036) | 0.175 (0.011)*** |
| Child 2+ years behind in school | 0.107 (0.022)*** | 0.517 (0.041)*** | 0.194 (0.015)*** |
| Father’s age | −0.018 (0.011) | −0.050 (0.019)*** | −0.015 (0.007)** |
| Mother’s age | 0.035 (0.013)*** | 0.034 (0.022) | −0.014 (0.007)* |
| Father’s age squared/100 | 0.022 (0.012)* | 0.056 (0.020)*** | 0.016 (0.008)** |
| Mother’s age squared/100 | −0.049 (0.016)*** | −0.048 (0.027)* | 0.014 (0.009) |
| Father’s schooling | −0.024 (0.008)*** | −0.014 (0.016) | −0.015 (0.005)*** |
| Mother’s schooling | −0.033 (0.009)*** | −0.043 (0.017)** | −0.032 (0.005)*** |
| Father’s schooling squared/100 | −0.077 (0.057) | −0.048 (0.116) | −0.022 (0.033) |
| Mother’s schooling squared/100 | −0.031 (0.066) | 0.188 (0.135) | 0.111 (0.036)*** |
| Metro Area (São Paulo omitted) | |||
| Salvador | −0.016 (0.030) | −0.113 (0.059)* | 0.424 (0.018)*** |
| Belo Horizonte | 0.090 (0.025)*** | 0.158 (0.051)*** | 0.153 (0.016)*** |
| Recife | −0.018 (0.029) | −0.010 (0.055) | 0.303 (0.018)*** |
| Rio de Janeiro | −0.326 (0.029)*** | −0.012 (0.054) | 0.278 (0.016)*** |
| Porto Alegre | −0.149 (0.029)*** | 0.141 (0.053)*** | 0.275 (0.017)*** |
| Year (1982 omitted) | |||
| Year 1984 | −0.081 (0.036)** | −0.070 (0.063) | −0.125 (0.023)*** |
| Year 1986 | 0.015 (0.035) | −0.033 (0.063) | −0.003 (0.023) |
| Year 1988 | −0.096 (0.040)** | −0.047 (0.071) | −0.063 (0.025)** |
| Year 1990 | −0.078 (0.039)** | −0.134 (0.068)** | 0.047 (0.024)* |
| Year 1992 | −0.279 (0.042)*** | −0.068 (0.073) | −0.063 (0.025)** |
| Year 1994 | −0.266 (0.039)*** | −0.311 (0.073)*** | −0.115 (0.025)*** |
| Year 1996 | −0.231 (0.040)*** | −0.401 (0.082)*** | −0.228 (0.025)*** |
| Year 1998 | −0.307 (0.043)*** | −0.234 (0.083)*** | −0.263 (0.027)*** |
| Month of first observation (February omitted) | |||
| March | −0.058 (0.038) | 0.009 (0.070) | 0.005 (0.023) |
| April | −0.066 (0.037)* | −0.11 (0.072) | 0.007 (0.023) |
| May | −0.020 (0.037) | −0.133 (0.072)* | −0.055 (0.022)** |
| June | −0.013 (0.037) | −0.065 (0.070) | −0.052 (0.022)** |
| July | 0.006 (0.036) | −0.024 (0.068) | −0.064 (0.023)*** |
| August | 0.018 (0.036) | −0.028 (0.067) | −0.058 (0.022)*** |
| Constant | −0.911 (0.290)*** | −1.482 (0.505)*** | 0.217 (0.176) |
| Number of Observations | 99,184 | 99,184 | 99,184 |
Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; Significance levels:
*
=.10,
**
=.05,
***
=.01 Sample is conditional on child in school and not working in month 1 and male head working in month 1.