Table 6.

Impact of unemployment shock to male head on child’s work and school transitions

Case	Predicted probability with no employment shock			Predicted probability with employment shock			Percentage increase due to employment shock
	Enter labor force	Drop out of school	Fail to advance grade	Enter labor force	Drop out of school	Fail to advance grade	Enter labor force	Drop out of school	Fail to advance grade
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Case 1: Baseline (see note for definition)	0.242	0.023	0.311	0.365	0.050	0.394	51%	121%	27%
Baseline, but with:
Case 2: Child male instead of female	0.379	0.022	0.375	0.517	0.047	0.427	37%	116%	14%
Case 3: Parental schooling 8 years instead of 0	0.110	0.009	0.208	0.192	0.022	0.278	74%	149%	34%
Case 4: Year 1998 instead of 1982	0.157	0.013	0.224	0.206	0.056	0.269	31%	344%	20%
Case 5: Child age 12 instead of 16	0.053	0.011	0.288	0.071	0.016	0.342	35%	39%	19%
Percentage difference from
Case 1:
Case 2: Child male instead of female	57%	−3%	21%	42%	−5%	8%	−28%	−5%	−48%
Case 3: Parental schooling 8 years instead of 0	−54%	−60%	−33%	−47%	−56%	−30%	46%	22%	26%
Case 4: Year 1998 instead of 1982	−35%	−44%	−28%	−44%	12%	−32%	−39%	184%	−26%
Case 5: Child age 12 instead of 16	−78%	−50%	−7%	−81%	−69%	−13%	−31%	−68%	−30%

Note: Baseline is 16 year-old female in São Paulo, father age 45, mother age 40, father and mother with zero schooling, father continuously employed between months 1–4 and 13. Based on probit regressions with interactions in Table 5.