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. 2007 Jun 25;56(11):1585–1589. doi: 10.1136/gut.2007.122739

Table 2 Estimated 10 year cumulative risk of colorectal cancer among women and men with advanced adenomas at various ages.

Sex Age (y) 10 year cumulative risk (%)
Main analysis Q = 0.85 D = 3.6y One‐way sensitivity analyses
Q = 0.70 Q = 1.00 D = 2y D = 5y
Women 55 25.4 21.5 29.2 22.9 27.3
60 31.2 26.5 35.6 28.1 33.5
65 36.2 31.0 41.1 33.4 38.3
70 41.0 35.2 46.2 38.1 43.0
75 43.3 37.4 48.7 41.8 44.5
80 42.9 37.0 48.3 42.7 43.0
Men 55 25.2 21.3 29.0 22.5 27.2
60 30.7 26.1 35.0 27.9 32.7
65 33.9 28.9 38.6 32.4 35.1
70 35.2 30.0 40.0 34.3 35.8
75 38.0 32.5 43.0 36.9 38.7
80 39.7 34.0 44.8 38.9 40.2

The proportion of colorectal cancers (CRC) arising from polypoid adenomas Q and the duration from CRC onset to CRC detection D are set to 0.85 and 3.6 years, respectively, in the main analyses, and they are varied between 0.7 and 1.0 and between 2 and 5 years, respectively, in the sensitivity analyses.