Table 3.

Parameter Estimates and Model Fit Statistics for Three Regression Models to Predict SRH Status in 2000

Variablea	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
SRH trajectoryb	−0.862***	−0.626***	−0.846***
SRH trajectory SSEc		−1.127***	−0.713***
Confounderd
High school graduates			3.292**
Live alone			2.613*
Non-White			−3.695*
Religion not very important			−2.614**
Expectation (probability) of living 10 more yearse
0%			−7.020***
51%–99%			3.635**
100%			5.348**
High incomef			3.271**
Ever smoked			−4.051***
CES-D scoreg			−2.129***
Diabetes			−7.268***
Hypertension			−2.809**
Number of ADL limitationsh			−4.944***
Number of IADL limitationsi			−2.905**
Lung disease			−11.523***
Heart condition			−7.943***
Stroke (ever had)			−4.580*
Doctor visitsj			−0.373***
R2	.0344	.0959	.2677

Notes: SRH = self-rated health; SSE = sum of squared errors; CES-D = Center for Epidemiologic Studies–Depression scale; ADL = activity of daily living; IADL = instrumental ADL.

^aBased on baseline (1993) responses, except for SRH trajectory, SRH change 1998–2000, and SRH trajectory SSE.

^bEqual to −1 times the estimate of the slope parameter from the univariate linear regression of the self-rated health values over time; a larger number represents a more negative slope or worsening SRH trend.

^cSSE from trajectory regression/100; represents a measure of fit of the calculated trajectory.

^dConfounders shown in table include only those with significant p values. In Model 3, the following nonsignificant variables are also included: religiosity; ever drunk alcohol; (ever) had cancer or hip fracture; obesity; and prior year hospital admissions and nursing home admissions. The p values for number of ADL limitations and having a heart condition were .07 and .10, respectively; for all other parameter estimates, p > .25.

^eReference category = expected chance of living 10 years is 50%. The parameter estimate for the categorical variable indicating expectations of 1%–49% was not significant.

^fIncome in top fourth or fifth quintile of all 7,447 respondents of the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old survey.

^gSum of “yes” responses for 8 items from the CES-D. A higher score represents more depressive symptoms. Proxy respondents (none in analytic sample) did not answer this question.

^hNumber of ADLs with which respondent needed help or had difficulty (range is 0 to 6).

ⁱNumber of IADLs with which respondent needed help or had difficulty (range is 0 to 5).

^jNumber of times respondent talked to a medical doctor about own health in past 12 months (prior to baseline interview).

^*p < .05;

^**p < .01;

^***p < .001.