Table 1:

Estimated Coefficients from Hazard Analyses in Arizona and Kentucky 2001–2005

	Arizona*		Kentucky*
Variable	Hazard Ratio	p-Value	Hazard Ratio	p-Value
1.a. Disenrollment Hazard Model: Overall Hazard
Premium effect	1.38	.000	1.52	.000
Recertification
First recertification	4.20	.000	4.05	.000
Second recertification	2.19	.000	3.77	.000
Third recertification	1.43	.000	N/A	N/A
Sample size		50,227		38,858
	Overall	p-Value	Exit to Medicaid	p-Value
1.b. Disenrollment Hazard Model: Competing Hazards Effect of New Premiums
Premium effect–Arizona	1.38	.000	1.11	.003
Premium effect–Kentucky	1.52	.000	1.00	.955
	Exit to Other		Exit for Other
	SCHIP	p-Value	Reason†	p-Value
Premium effect–Arizona	1.15	.001	1.85	.000
Premium effect–Kentucky	1.01	.796	2.34	.000
Sample size		50,227		38,858
	Arizona *		Kentucky*
Variable	Hazard Ratio	p-Value	Hazard Ratio	p-Value
1.c. Reenrollment Hazard Model
Premium effect	0.90	.009	0.95	.328
Exit effect
Exit out of public insurance	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Exit to medicaid	0.82	.000	1.36	.000
Exit to other SCHIP category or program	1.91	.000	2.40	.000
Sample size		47,430		24,104

^*Both models control for time trends, household income, county or region, and economic conditions. The Kentucky model also controls for managed care enrollment, and whether the child was previously enrolled in Medicaid or nonpremium-paying State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). Coefficients for the demographic variables can be found in Appendix A.

^†Other reasons include premium nonpayment.

Source: Linked monthly administrative enrollment data for Arizona and Kentucky from November 2001 to November 2005.