Table 2:

Time Series Estimates of Caseload Changes in Public Insurance Programs in Kentucky and Arizona, 2001–2005

	Arizona		Kentucky
	Medicaid SOBRA Children*	KidsCare 0–150 Percent of the FPL All Ages	Medicaid	KCHIP II	KCHIP III†
Average monthly premium effect‡	1,275 (p=.37)	−1,155 (p=.03)	2,126 (p=.14)	634 (p=.02)	−3,262 (p<.01)
Premium effect as a percent of premium-paying caseload	1.7%	−5.3%	0.7%	2.0%	−18.1%

^*Medicaid SOBRA Children are children ages 1–5 with family incomes up to 133 percent of the FPL and infants under age 1 with family incomes up to 140 percent of the FPL.

^†Cochrane–Orcutt adjustment was not used for this model.

^‡Premium variable takes the value “1” after premium was increased and is “0” otherwise. The premium effect is interpreted as the average monthly change in caseload due to the premium increase. Two-tailed p-values are given in parentheses.

Source: Tabulations of monthly administrative enrollment data from Arizona and Kentucky, 2001–2005.