Fig. 3.

Posterior predictive new infections of daily increments (shaded region corresponds to credible intervals) with observations (points, area of symbols are proportional to the number of observations) for damping-off epidemics in mixed populations comprising 100%, 75%, 50%, or 0% favorable hosts. Predictions take the form of mixture distributions with each component conditional on the previous spatial observation of disease presence in an experimental replicate. Predictions take account of both parametric uncertainty and population stochasticity. I_F(t) and I_U(t) denote the number of infected favorable and unfavorable hosts at time t, respectively.