Table 2.
Identification of the most likely pathways and sources of transmission of infection in mixed populations, estimated by fitting the model to replicated epidemics of mixed populations with different ratios of favorable (F) and unfavorable (U) plants
| Species | 100% F |
75% F |
50% F |
100% U |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | F | U | F | U | U | |
| Primary infection | 4.6 (0.2) | 4.5 (0.3) | 5.8 (0.3) | 4.2 (0.3) | 5.8 (0.2) | 5.7 (0.2) |
| Secondary transmission from F | 58.4 (0.5) | 45.4 (0.7) | 27.1 (0.9) | 25.7 (0.7) | 14.5 (0.6) | — |
| Secondary transmission from U | — | 5.0 (0.5) | 2.0 (0.5) | 13.1 (0.6) | 9.3 (0.5) | 7.9 (0.3) |
The values show the posterior mean (expressed as % of F or U present in the population) of plants that became infected by primary infection, secondary infection from favorable plants, or secondary infection from an unfavorable plant. Tertiary infection accounted for the infection of a further 11–15% of favorable and 4–5% of unfavorable plants. Standard deviations are given in parentheses.