Table 1. Summary of potential impacts.
A2 emissions scenario | B2 emissions scenario | |||||
GFDL | HadCM3 | ECHAM4 | GFDL | HadCM3 | ECHAM4 | |
D (km) | 361 | 707 | 882 | 258 | 545 | 680 |
25–1825 | 20–2153 | 89–3578 | 25–1342 | 54–2477 | 58–2436 | |
θ (° from N) | 342·8° | 11·7° | 45·0° | 341·3° | 9·3° | 27·8° |
V (km yr−1) | 4·41 | 6·55 | 6·62 | 3·61 | 5·14 | 5·87 |
0·46–21·72 | 0·43–23·06 | 0·37–24·85 | 0·44–22·13 | 0·46–24·26 | 0·37–23·05 | |
R | 0·722 | 0·757 | 0·892 | 0·812 | 0·805 | 0·803 |
O | 0·429 | 0·312 | 0·475 | 0·528 | 0·394 | 0·375 |
R0 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
R10 | 1 | 22 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
O0 | 18 | 54 | 59 | 13 | 27 | 43 |
O10 | 27 | 65 | 78 | 14 | 51 | 60 |
N | 0·874 | 0·848 | 0·768 | 0·932 | 0·914 | 0·858 |
N′ | 0·657 (2881) | 0·516 (3074) | 0·436 (3550) | 0·733 (3067) | 0·602 (3145) | 0·520 (3521) |
D geodesic distance (mean, minimum and maximum) between centroids of range simulated for present climate and of potential range simulated for future climate scenario
θ mean bearing of initial azimuth for geodesic path between centroids of range simulated for present climate and of potential range simulated for future climate scenario
V rate of range boundary adjustment (mean, minimum and maximum) necessary to achieve potential range displacement
R mean extent of potential future range, measured as number of potentially occupied grid cells, expressed as a proportion of simulated present range
O extent of overlap between potential future range and simulated present range, expressed as a proportion of simulated present range extent
R0 number of species with zero potential future range extent in Europe
R10 number of species with a non-zero potential future range extent in Europe that is less than one tenth of the extent of their simulated present range
O0 number of species with zero overlap between potential future range and simulated present range
O10 number of species with a non-zero overlap between their potential future range and simulated present range that is less than one tenth of the extent of the latter
N mean potential future species number per grid cell as a proportion of mean present species number per grid cell, assuming ‘perfect’ dispersal
N′ mean potential future species number per grid cell as a proportion of mean present species number per grid cell, assuming ‘dispersal failure’; (number of grid cells used to calculate N and N′ is shown in parentheses)