Table 2. Present and potential future ranges of endemic and near-endemic species.
| Species | Status | Range extent (no. of grid cells) | Potential future range extent (R) and overlap (O) (proportion of extent of simulated present range; upper figures are for the A2 and lower for the B2 emissions scenario) | |||||
| observed/simulated | GFDL | HadCM3 | ECHAM4 | |||||
| R | O | R | O | R | O | |||
| Calonectris diomedea | NE/m | 80/109 | 0·394/0·055 | 0·596/0·083 | 0·394/0·092 | |||
| Cory's Shearwater | 0·294/0·138 | 0·495/0·055 | 0·541/0·055 | |||||
| Puffinus yelkouan | NE/pm | 68/90 | 0·211/0·011 | 0·300/0·000 | 0·167/0·000 | |||
| Yelkouan Shearwater | 0·278/0·100 | 0·356/0·000 | 0·200/0·000 | |||||
| Phalacrocorax aristotelis | NE | 283/290 | 0·976/0·500 | 0·797/0·479 | 0·859/0·386 | |||
| Shag | 1·069/0·555 | 0·841/0·441 | 0·931/0·466 | |||||
| Milvus milvus | NE/pm | 632/659 | 0·599/0·259 | 0·419/0·035 | 0·624/0·041 | |||
| Red Kite | 0·756/0·393 | 0·580/0·138 | 0·624/0·103 | |||||
| Accipiter brevipes | NE/m | 107/146 | 0·411/0·130 | 0·767/0·192 | 0·247/0·151 | |||
| Levant Sparrowhawk | 0·610/0·281 | 1·144/0·288 | 0·658/0·267 | |||||
| Aquila adalberti | E | 40/46 | 2·065/0·435 | 2·370/0·000 | 2·478/0·000 | |||
| Spanish Imperial Eagle | 2·000/0·370 | 1·652/0·000 | 2·196/0·000 | |||||
| Falco eleonorae | NE/m | 55/81 | 1·086/0·247 | 4·741/0·370 | 2·679/0·210 | |||
| Eleonora's Falcon | 0·975/0·358 | 2·938/0·358 | 2·136/0·235 | |||||
| Alectoris graeca | E | 235/255 | 1·682/0·161 | 2·039/0·129 | 2·639/0·059 | |||
| Rock Partridge | 1·298/0·286 | 1·949/0·161 | 2·247/0·098 | |||||
| Alectoris rufa | E | 570/611 | 0·753/0·462 | 0·822/0·278 | 0·830/0·291 | |||
| Red-legged Partridge | 1·020/0·635 | 0·809/0·347 | 0·825/0·326 | |||||
| Porzana parva | NE/m | 382/615 | 0·600/0·276 | 0·610/0·133 | 0·400/0·024 | |||
| Little Crake | 0·743/0·302 | 0·654/0·213 | 0·528/0·140 | |||||
| Stercorarius skua | E/m | 67/61 | 0·475/0·213 | 0·262/0·115 | 0·541/0·230 | |||
| Great Skua | 0·770/0·361 | 0·639/0·180 | 0·672/0·279 | |||||
| Larus melanocephalus | NE/pm | 102/121 | 0·099/0·000 | 0·653/0·025 | 0·364/0·000 | |||
| Mediterranean Gull | 0·174/0·008 | 0·719/0·066 | 0·413/0·008 | |||||
| Larus audouinii | NE/pm | 39/51 | 0·137/0·000 | 0·255/0·000 | 0·176/0·000 | |||
| Audouin's Gull | 0·412/0·157 | 0·137/0·000 | 0·059/0·000 | |||||
| Picus viridis | NE | 1754/2057 | 0·868/0·687 | 0·943/0·557 | 1·027/0·514 | |||
| Green Woodpecker | 0·974/0·778 | 0·996/0·661 | 1·092/0·667 | |||||
| Dendrocopos medius | NE | 889/1165 | 0·758/0·415 | 0·647/0·130 | 0·707/0·022 | |||
| Middle Spotted Woodpecker | 0·877/0·524 | 0·825/0·336 | 0·775/0·144 | |||||
| Lullula arborea | NE/pm | 1698/2079 | 0·702/0·554 | 0·902/0·528 | 0·965/0·506 | |||
| Woodlark | 0·835/0·702 | 0·941/0·601 | 0·999/0·578 | |||||
| Anthus pratensis | NE/pm | 1620/2268 | 0·456/0·432 | 0·448/0·403 | 0·496/0·420 | |||
| Meadow Pipit | 0·567/0·541 | 0·555/0·510 | 0·584/0·505 | |||||
| Anthus petrosus | E/pm | 268/308 | 0·744/0·545 | 0·740/0·536 | 0·666/0·468 | |||
| Rock Pipit | 0·744/0·552 | 0·818/0·588 | 0·740/0·539 | |||||
| Prunella modularis | NE/pm | 2004/2672 | 0·699/0·658 | 0·601/0·549 | 0·673/0·639 | |||
| Dunnock | 0·784/0·747 | 0·719/0·665 | 0·763/0·721 | |||||
| Erithacus rubecula | NE/pm | 2569/3254 | 0·757/0·716 | 0·738/0·680 | 0·823/0·760 | |||
| Robin | 0·828/0·787 | 0·815/0·754 | 0·892/0·829 | |||||
| Saxicola rubetra | NE/m | 2148/2866 | 0·654/0·613 | 0·523/0·477 | 0·604/0·558 | |||
| Whinchat | 0·778/0·736 | 0·693/0·645 | 0·673/0·629 | |||||
| Turdus torquatus | NE/pm | 544/567 | 1·166/0·310 | 0·935/0·293 | 1·146/0·312 | |||
| Ring Ouzel | 1·222/0·388 | 1·079/0·360 | 1·145/0·370 | |||||
| Acrocephalus paludicola | NE/m | 61/88 | 0·670/0·011 | 0·739/0·000 | 0·443/0·000 | |||
| Aquatic Warbler | 1·023/0·011 | 0·784/0·000 | 0·557/0·000 | |||||
| Acrocephalus palustris | NE/m | 1376/1945 | 0·796/0·663 | 0·746/0·445 | 0·828/0·448 | |||
| Marsh Warbler | 0·899/0·768 | 0·881/0·623 | 0·903/0·563 | |||||
| Hippolais icterina | NE/m | 1432/2017 | 0·569/0·484 | 0·452/0·271 | 0·547/0·307 | |||
| Icterine Warbler | 0·689/0·604 | 0·607/0·424 | 0·644/0·418 | |||||
| Sylvia balearica/ S. sarda | E/pm | 37/51 | 0·824/0·020 | 1·020/0·000 | 1·843/0·000 | |||
| Balearic Warbler/ Marmora's Warbler | 1·157/0·294 | 0·608/0·000 | 0·961/0·000 | |||||
| Sylvia undata | NE | 459/522 | 1·042/0·670 | 1·071/0·303 | 1·437/0·460 | |||
| Dartford Warbler | 1·159/0·784 | 0·864/0·385 | 1·266/0·490 | |||||
| Sylvia atricapilla | NE/pm | 2536/3106 | 0·913/0·823 | 0·921/0·760 | 1·090/0·873 | |||
| Blackcap | 0·956/0·883 | 0·960/0·812 | 1·100/0·902 | |||||
| Regulus ignicapillus | NE/pm | 1048/1124 | 0·873/0·483 | 0·898/0·367 | 0·978/0·202 | |||
| Firecrest | 0·957/0·618 | 0·874/0·436 | 0·959/0·317 | |||||
| Ficedula albicollis | NE/m | 442/629 | 0·909/0·402 | 0·653/0·021 | 0·700/0·021 | |||
| Collared Flycatcher | 0·992/0·482 | 0·758/0·200 | 0·661/0·049 | |||||
| Parus cristatus | NE | 1590/2085 | 0·731/0·561 | 0·609/0·343 | 0·816/0·467 | |||
| Crested Tit | 0·858/0·683 | 0·737/0·500 | 0·886/0·523 | |||||
| Parus caeruleus | NE | 2526/2950 | 0·905/0·816 | 1·019/0·817 | 1·149/0·893 | |||
| Blue Tit | 0·940/0·858 | 1·048/0·868 | 1·153/0·905 | |||||
| Certhia brachydactyla | NE | 1226/1348 | 0·992/0·646 | 0·980/0·390 | 1·141/0·361 | |||
| Short-toed Treecreeper | 1·054/0·760 | 1·056/0·567 | 1·136/0·448 | |||||
| Cyanopica cyanus | E | 105/134 | 1·164/0·410 | 0·978/0·000 | 1·470/0·060 | |||
| Azure-winged Magpie | 1·209/0·493 | 0·754/0·045 | 1·164/0·090 | |||||
| Sturnus unicolor | NE | 291/324 | 0·806/0·485 | 0·528/0·065 | 0·843/0·142 | |||
| Spotless Starling | 0·886/0·617 | 0·435/0·136 | 0·765/0·204 | |||||
| Passer×italiae | E | 185/196 | 1·704/0·071 | 2·454/0·061 | 2·816/0·000 | |||
| Italian Sparrow | 1·372/0·148 | 1·995/0·143 | 2·367/0·005 | |||||
| Serinus citrinella | E/pm | 169/171 | 0·719/0·222 | 0·415/0·082 | 0·643/0·035 | |||
| Citril Finch | 0·936/0·240 | 0·538/0·094 | 0·520/0·094 | |||||
| Loxia scotica | E | 14/7 | 0·429/0·000 | 2·000/0·000 | 2·143/0·000 | |||
| Scottish Crossbill | 0·286/0·000 | 2·857/0·000 | 3·143/0·000 | |||||
| Loxia pytyopsittacus | NE | 471/781 | 0·494/0·384 | 0·373/0·251 | 0·531/0·287 | |||
| Parrot Crossbill | 0·569/0·472 | 0·583/0·408 | 0·671/0·389 | |||||
| Emberiza cirlus | NE | 882/992 | 1·412/0·778 | 1·721/0·751 | 1·965/0·729 | |||
| Cirl Bunting | 1·356/0·854 | 1·538/0·794 | 1·820/0·769 | |||||
Species' status is categorised as: E–endemic; NE–near-endemic; m–long-distance migrant; pm–short-distance or partial migrant. Migratory status was determined according to the predominant behaviour of the population breeding in Europe.
Range extent is expressed as the number of grid squares in which the species is observed or simulated to be present; simulated ranges are often more extensive because species were simulated for ‘no data’ grid squares that fell within the climatic space of the data.
Two species classified as endemic and one classified as near-endemic are omitted from the Table. The distribution of Sitta whiteheadi (E; 6 recorded occurrences) could not be modelled, whilst the models obtained for Tetrao mlokosiewiczi (NE; 50 recorded occurrences) and Tetraogallus caucasicus (E; 30 recorded occurrences) were not considered useful and were rejected.