Table 5.
Studies reporting probabilities. Predictive instruments and models used for disability related outcomes at different time-points
| Study | Predictive factors/instruments | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carey 2000 [4] N at follow up: 1246 |
4 weeks functional status: if patient reported an ability to perform his usual daily activities as well as he did before the onset of the LBP episode) | 0% | probability of being functionally impaired at 3 months |
| If impaired (self declared by the patient) at 4 weeks | Percent being functionally impaired at 3/6/22 months | ||
| 45/36/56% | |||
| Dionne 1997 [10] Decision Rule N at follow up: 569 training sample, 644 validation sample |
If SCL-90-R Depression score <0.444 | 2.0% (ts) 4.9% (vs) |
More than 50% on the Modified Roland-Morris score at 2 years |
| If SCL-90-R Depression score ≥ 0.444 but <1.5 and SCL-90-R Somatization <0.333 |
1.2% (ts) 03.5% (vs) | ||
| and SCL-90-R Somatization ≥ 0.333 | 19.5% (ts) 19.4% (vs) |
||
| If SCL-90-R Depression ≥ 1.5 | 42.4% (ts) 35.9% (vs) |
||
| Dionne 2005 [9] N at follow up: 860 Decision Rule developed in Dionne 1997 |
If SCL-90-R Depression score <0.444 | 6.2% | More than 50% on the Modified Roland-Morris score at 2 years |
| If SCL-90-R Depression score ≥ 0.444 but <1.5 and SCL-90-R Somatization <0.333 |
6.7% | ||
| and SCL-90-R Somatization ≥ 0.333 | 14.2% | ||
| If SCL-90-R Depression ≥ 1.5 | 26.8% | ||
| Von Korff 2005 [43] N at follow up 1 year: 1128 2 years: 1024 5 years: 819 |
Percent with Chronic pain grade II to IV at 1/2/5 years | ||
| Low risk score 0–7 | 10.9/8.0/11.7% | ||
| Intermediate Risk score 8–15 | 32.1/27.6/24.6% | ||
| Possible chronic Pain score 16–21 | 58.7/51.7/46.4% | ||
| Probable chronic pain score 22 + | 82.1/71.7/68.2% | ||
Probability of patients having different outcomes at a given follow-up time-points if predictive factor present
Risk score from Von Korff et al. [43]: risk score based on pain severity (combining with a scoring system average pain intensity, worst pain intensity and current pain intensity), and interference with pain, interference with work/housework, interference with family/social activities, and days of activity limitations due to back pain in the prior six months, and SCL-90-R-Depression score, and number of other pains, and number of days with back pain in the prior six months
Chronic pain grades in the study of Von Korff et al. [43]: (1) no back pain, (2) mild back pain, (3) moderate back pain and limitation, and (4) severe limiting back pain