Table 3.
Results from regression models.
| Statistical model | Linear regression | Logistic regression | Negative binomial regression | ||
| Dependent variable | Number of bank voles | PUUV prevalence | Number of human NE cases | ||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2004 | 2005 | 1994–2005 | |
| Land-surface attributes | |||||
| Greenness of the vegetation | 1.75** | - | - | - | - |
| Landscape configuration | |||||
| Area of forest patch | - | - | - | - | 0.02* |
| Proximity index | -6.39** | - | - | - | - |
| Proportion of build-up areas around the forest patch | - | -145.73* | - | - | - |
| Soil | |||||
| Proportion of thin particles (< 10 μm) | - | - | - | - | 0.20*** |
| Climate | |||||
| Maximum temperature during the previous winter | - | - | -0.22*** | -0.19*** | - |
| Rainfall during the previous autumn | - | - | - | -0.01* | - |
| Rainfall during the previous winter | -0.30* | - | - | - | - |
| Rainfall during the previous spring | - | -0.37* | - | - | - |
| Absolute number of bank voles | - | - | 0.02* | - | - |
| Goodness of fit | |||||
| N | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Events/Trials | - | - | 35.5/502.5 | 79.5/548 | - |
| R2 | 0.71 | 0.39 | - | - | - |
| Adj. R2 | 0.64 | 0.30 | - | - | - |
| Degrees of freedom | - | - | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Residual deviance | - | - | 14.47 | 20.67 | 10.51 |
| Deviance value/DF | - | - | 1.03 | 1.48 | 0.75 |
Parameter estimates of significant variables and goodness of fit statistics for: (i) linear regressions on the absolute number of bank voles captured, (ii) logistic regression with logit link function and binomial distribution on the PUUV prevalence of bank voles, and (iii) negative binomial regression on NE cases per postal code area. For southern Belgium, data used in statistical analyses correspond to the average number of bank voles captured in summer and autumn. The dispersion parameter for the negative binomial family was taken to be 1. *** P-value < 0.001; ** P-value < 0.01; * P-value < 0.1.