Table 1. Correlates of amphibian threat risk.
Model | k | LL | ΔBIC | wBIC | %DE | Δ%DE |
(a) Ecology/life-history | ||||||
BS+RG | 8 | −580.785 | 0.000 | 0.975 | 46.11 | |
BS+RG+HB+RC | 12 | −575.106 | 8.972 | 0.011 | 46.63 | |
RG+RG2 | 8 | −585.825 | 10.188 | 0.006 | 46.64 | |
BS+RG+HB+FT | 12 | −575.858 | 10.519 | 0.005 | 46.56 | |
BS+RG+HB+PC | 12 | −577.347 | 13.627 | 0.001 | 46.43 | |
(b) Environmental context | ||||||
BS+RG+TM+PV | 10 | −572.935 | 0.000 | 0.354 | 48.53 | 2.42 |
BS+RG+TM+PM+PV | 11 | −570.693 | 0.564 | 0.267 | 48.73 | 2.62 |
BS+RG+TM+TV+PV | 11 | −570.907 | 0.980 | 0.217 | 48.71 | 2.60 |
BS+RG+TM+PV+HL | 11 | −572.290 | 3.787 | 0.053 | 48.59 | 2.48 |
BS+RG+TM+PM+PV+HL | 12 | −569.931 | 4.102 | 0.046 | 48.80 | 2.69 |
The five most parsimonious generalized linear mixed-effects models investigating (a) life history correlates of threat risk (n = 2,494) and (b) environmental context, after accounting for effects of range and body size (n = 2,584). Models include nested (hierarchical) taxonomic (Order/Family) random intercepts and geographic distance random slopes to account for spatial autocorrelation. Models were ranked according to the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). For ecology/life history models, the five most highly BIC-ranked models accounted for >99 % of the posterior model weight (wBIC) of the total of 40 models considered. For environmental context, model weights were more evenly distributed among the 5 most highly ranked of the 75 models considered. Terms shown are RG = range (km2), BS = body size, HB = habit, RC = reproductive cycle, PC = presence/absence of parental care, and FT = fertilization type, TM = mean temperature, PV = precipitation range, PM = mean precipitation, TV = temperature range, HL = % habitat lost, HD = human density (people/km2) Also shown are number of parameters (k), maximum log-likelihood (LL), difference in BIC for each model from the most parsimonious model (ΔBIC) model weight (wBIC), percent deviance explained (%DE) in the response variable (threat probability) by the model under consideration, and the difference between the %DE for the current environmental context model and the base ∼BS+RG model (Δ%DE).