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. 2008 Mar 5;3(3):e1711. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001711

Figure 3. Time trends of adult HIV prevalence (A&B) projected from parameterised incidence curves (C&D).

Figure 3

Higher prevalence results assuming declining background mortality (orange lines) compared with stable (green lines) or increasing background mortality (blue lines). Darker shaded lines represent longer survival post-infection; lighter lines represent shorter survival. UNAIDS prevalence estimates are shown for comparison (symbol, ref). HIV incidence measured in Harare male factory workers (○[7]) and Harare post-natal women (□[27]) are plotted alongside modelled incidence in C&D. Prevalence and incidence estimates from back-calculation are for 15 to 59 year olds, empirical and national estimates generally refer to 15 to 49 year olds.