TABLE 1—
Anticipated Health Effects of Climate Change in the United States
| Weather Event | Health Effects | Populations Most Affected | Additional US Health Burden | Nonclimate Determinants | Adaptation Measures | Health Data Sources for Surveillance | Meteorological and Other Data for Surveillance |
| Heat waves | Heat stress | The very old; athletes; the socially isolated; the poor; those with respiratory disease | Low to moderate | Acclimation; built environment | Architecture; air conditioning; warning systems; distributed, resilient, “smart power grid”; community response | ED and ambulatory visits; hospital admissions; mortality | Daily minimum and maximum temperatures; humidity; soil moisture |
| Extreme weather events | Injuries; drowning | Coastal, low-lying land dwellers; the poor | Uncertain: likely moderate | Engineering; zoning and land-use policies | Architecture; engineering; planning; early warning systems | Attributed risk; ED visits; hospital admissions; FEMA records; mortality | Meteorological event data: extent, timing, severity, return time for rare events |
| Winter weather anomalies (e.g., rain, ice) | Slips and falls; motor vehicle crashes | Dwellers in northern climates; elderly people; drivers | Public education; mass transit | ED visits | Meteorological event data | ||
| Sea-level rise | Injuries; drowning; water and soil salinization; ecosystem and economic disruption | Coastal dwellers; those with low SES | Low | Water pollution; storms; coastal development; land-use policies | Sea walls and levees; abandonment | Attributed risk; ED and ambulatory visits; mental health measures (indirect Effects) | Satellite mapping of coastal areas; sea level and tidal surge records |
| Increased ozone and pollen formation | Respiratory disease exacerbation (e.g., COPD, asthma, allergic rhinitis, bronchitis) | The elderly; children; those with respiratory disease | Low to moderate | Smoking; air quality; respiratory infections; industrial activity; electric demand and production mode; access to health care | Pollution controls; air conditioning; education; medical therapy | ED and ambulatory visits; hospital admissions | Daily and weekly temperature; rainfall; pollen counts; ozone levels; particulate measures |
| Drought, ecosystem migration | Food and water shortages; malnutrition | Those with low SES; elderly; children | Low | Population growth; food distribution systems; economic and trade issues; biotechnology; petroleum cost | Technological advances; enhanced delivery systems; trade negotiations | Growth monitoring; food insecurity data | Crop yields; rainfall patterns; data on food sources and marketing |
| Droughts, floods, increased mean temperature | Food- and waterborne diseases | Swimmers; multiple populations at risk depending on outcome of interest | Low to moderate | Travel; land use; water treatment and quality; housing quality; food-handling practices | Public education; water treatment; medical treatment; watershed management | Disease surveillance; ED and ambulatory visits; seasonal patterns in incidence; focused observations at geographic margins | Temperature and rainfall data; vector population and habitat/range monitoring |
| Droughts, floods, increased mean temperature | Vector-borne disease | Outdoor workers; people pursuing outdoor recreation; the poor (without air conditioning/window screens) | Low to moderate | Travel; vector and animal host distribution; habitat change; land use | Public education; vector control; medical prophylaxis and treatment; vaccination | Disease surveillance; ED and ambulatory visits; focused observations at geographic margins | Temperature and rainfall data; vector population and habitat/range monitoring |
| Extreme weather events; drought | Mass population movement; international conflict | General population | Uncertain: potentially moderate to high | Sociopolitical factors; resource use and conflicts; economic development | Negotiation and conflict mediation; postdisaster response | Event and population movement monitoring; mental health outcomes surveillance | Meteorological event data; regional economic and resource use data |
| Climate change generally; extreme events | Mental health | The young; the displaced; those with depression or anxiety | Uncertain: potentially moderate | Baseline mental health disease burden | Health communication; postdisaster mental health outreach; various therapeutic and medical management options | Mental health outcomes surveillance | Correlation of mental health outcomes with regional variable responses to extreme events; climate change as a whole |